Archive of activity to September 2009

 

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Under 1.5 Goals
Web site community for serious Betfair traders.
Open Golf
Lay Betfair Place markets
Horse racing Place markets
Trade 0-0 in football matches.
Lay the draw with insurance in football matches.

Note that at the time of writing Jan 2010, I no longer sell this Lay The Draw strategy.
The exit strategy described worked very well in most games, but if the score remained 1-0 or 0-1 well into the 2nd half of a game, there were problems trading out to a profit or an acceptable loss.
I therefore removed this strategy from my web sites in the middle of 2009.

My websites.

betformulas.co.uk
Formulas and maths of trading

betandlay.co.uk
Football trading

betandlay.co.uk/strategies
Strategies for horse racing and football trading

betandlay.co.uk/bookie
Be A Bookie.
Laying strategies and spreadsheets for Betfair trading

startingstalls.co.uk
A very accurate analysis of U.K.  horse racing draw advantages.

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Sept 22nd 2009.  Under 1.5 Goals strategy uploaded.
After a bit of fine tuning of the instructions today and a bit more trading tonight, I have now put this new strategy onto my web sites.
Follow this link for a description Under 1.5 Goals strategy with insurance.

I lost on the first game I traded tonight after a goal at 6 minutes, but won all the losses back and more, in the 2nd game I traded that had a goal at 29 minutes.

Under 1.5 Goals with insurance, is best suited to games in which the 2 teams are evenly matched in Betfair's Match Odds market.
Good luck with your trading, Howard..

Sept 22nd 2009.  Under 1.5 Goals strategy update.
Testing of this new strategy is more or less complete.
I've traded games with no goals, an early goal, games with a goal well into the game, and games that were 0-0 at Half Time that I traded into the 2nd Half.
I have completed the write-up for this strategy and recorded video demos for viewing on YouTube.
Those demo videos will be available to paying customers only.

I'm also arranging to do a webinar presentation of this Under 1.5 Goals strategy on the new web site that I have been involved with for the last couple of months.
That web site gives members access to full time traders - who share their trading secrets via videos and articles within the
new web site.
Members on there already have free access to the 2 spreadsheets that I use for trading this strategy, so after the webinar demonstration, they should be able to trade this strategy if they choose.

This strategy is proving quite a safe way of trading.
The only 2 problems are a really early goal or 2 quick goals early in a game.
Other than those 2 situations, we can either trade to profit or exit with a very small loss, providing we choose the right games.
I don't recommend trading games in which one of the teams is a very strong favourite.
If the strong favourite team scores first in those games, the Lay odds of the remaining score still In Play (either 1-0 or 0-1), may not shorten, as the market may expect more goals.
In games with evenly matched teams, the Lay odds of the remaining In Play score (1-0 or 0-1) usually shorten to some degree which is ok for this strategy.
Note that at that point, these lay odds of either 1-0 or 0-1) will be the same or very close to the Under 1.5 Goals Lay odds as these are now equivalent markets after one goal has been scored.
If you had simply bet Under 1.5 Goals before the Kick Off and now looked to Lay Under 1.5 Goals, very often the Under 1.5 Goals odds (which are now equal to either the 1-0 or 0-1 odds) are bigger than before the kick off - making an exit to profit impossible.
This strategy gets around that problem, and can often produce a profit after one goal is scored.
If the goal comes really early in the game, the loss is usually very small - preserving our bank for another game.
I hope to put this strategy up on my web sites later this week for only a tenner.
Good luck with your trading, Howard..

August 31st 2009.  Under 1.5 Goals strategy.
I traded a few games over the weekend and improved my profits a bit from the basic strategy.
I'm now using a fixed stake for my insurance, which works very well.
Also, I eliminated the need for a goal yesterday in the Everton - Wigan game, simply by trading out whilst the score was 0-0 at about the 35 minute mark.
At that point, all my trade was in profit, so it was just a matter of choosing my moment to make a profitable exit.
If I'd waited and traded out at Half Time with the score still at 0-0, I would have made a smaller profit, so trading out before Half  Time is an improvement.
A goal would have been better.
The Arsenal goal at 40 minutes against Man Utd the day before was an excellent result for me.
I traded out immediately afterwards - very nice.

This is a Bet First Under 1.5 Goals strategy.
Normally if we Bet Under 1.5 Goals, a goal in the First Half of a game causes the odds to rise which can make it impossible to Lay Under 1.5 Goals to hedge to profit.
To lay to profit, we need to sweat it out waiting for time to pass in the game whilst the odds begin to drop again.
The aim of this strategy is to eliminate that problem.

If I had simply been trading in the Betfair Under 1.5 Goals market, and had a bet on Under 1.5 Goals still In Play at 40 minutes in the Arsenal - Man Utd game, I wouldn't have been able to Lay at lower odds to make a profitable exit after the Arsenal goal..
The Under 1.5 Goals odds before the Kick Off were Bet 3.5.
After the goal at 40 minutes, the Lay odds of Under 1.5 Goals were 4.9 at Half Time.
This new strategy gets around that Lay odds problem, so that even though the Under 1.5 Goals Lay odds were bigger than when I entered the market before the Kick Off, I was able to Lay and exit my trade to profit.

Also, by trading out if the score remains 0-0 towards Half Time, I can still make a good profit, just as you would if you had simply bet Under 1.5 Goals and waited for the odds to drop whilst the score remained 0-0.
This strategy is beginning to look like a very safe way of trading,
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

August 27th 2009.  A "Trade Under 1.5 Goals" strategy rolls of the production line.
After concentrating on horses for 2 or 3 months, I've started looking at Football trading on Betfair again.
A fresh start has done me good - I've had a re-think of some Correct Score market trading on Betfair, and the penny dropped last week for quite a good way of trading Under 1.5 Goals.
Success of this strategy relies on a goal being scored, but an early goal can cause problems.
The breakthrough I had concerned insurance against an early goal.
I've come up with some insurance that can be varied to our comfort / risk level.

If we reduce the size of our insurance stake, the risk of a loss from an early goal is increased.
If we increase the size of our insurance stake, the risk of a loss from an early goal is reduced and if a goal is scored for a successful trade, a bigger insurance stake increases profits for the trade as a whole.
Unfortunately, a big insurance stake combined with no goal = big liabilities.
I came up with a very easy way of balancing the insurance stake that mostly seems to cover all but the first 15 minutes or so, whilst allowing us to exit to a small profit if the score remains 0-0.
Increase that insurance stake slightly, and our 0-0 profit will probably go into the red, but we reduce the early goal cover to less than the 15 minute mark.
No doubt you will see straight away that if there is no goal, a bet on Under 1.5 Goals could be Hedged successfully to profit.
However, if we are simply Hedging Under 1.5 Goals and an early goal is scored and we can be caught with a bet in play.
We could easily be looking at trading into the red, or having to wait for time to pass in the game whilst we wait for the odds of Under 1.5 Goals to reduce.
A goal at the right time is very good for my strategy, with profit bigger than just a straight Hedge of the Under 1.5 Goals odds.

I have paper traded this strategy and I'm now putting my money where my spreadsheet is to find out what the problems might be.
So far, the only problems have been the timing of the first goal, OR no goals at all of course but my insurance is covering most of that.
This strategy will be for sale shortly, once I've traded a few more games.

For some considerable time, I've been working on a strategy for the Under/Over 2.5 Goals market.
I have a decent strategy for that, but I need insurance to cover an early goal, or too many goals.
No goals, or 1 or 2 goals after 20 minutes or so is great . . . ..  3 or more goals cause problems.

I've traded this 2.5 Goals strategy with my cash and done ok, but the early goal and too many goals problems are still there.
I'll be applying my Under 1.5 Goals insurance method to this 2.5 Goals strategy when I get some spare time.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

August 18th 2009.  Live webinar.
I presented my first ever live on-line webinar on Sunday evening at 7 pm.
My topic was Dutching - from basics to trading In Play.
I covered horse racing Win and Place markets using my Be A Bookie spreadsheet and my Place Market spreadsheets that I developed recently.
My presentation took an hour, and I'm looking forward to being invited to do another.

My webinar was the first of what will be a series of webinars presented for the New website

August 8th 2009.  New website.
A few months ago, I was invited to join a team of full time traders for a new website venture.
The new web site is designed to enable anyone to make a 2nd income from trading.
The main thrust of the site is that you can improve your trading and make guaranteed winnings whilst you do it.

Videos and articles on the site show exactly how full time traders go about their business
All the Full Timers involved are available on the site to answer any trading questions that you would like to put to them.

Now is your chance to get in on the ground floor.
This new website is going places, and guarantees to make you a profit every month.
I have been rummaging around the site since launch at the weekend, and already it's been a real eye opener for me.
Follow this link - I guarantee that you won't be disappointed.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

July 25th 2009.  How long can this go on ?  Trade Bookies Free Bets.
I don't like to see blogs that record profit and losses from trades, and try to avoid posting my trades on here, so I apologise for describing my P & L here..

How long can bookies continue to give away money ?
Although I have quite a lot of accounts with bookies, some of those same bookies occasionally give me additional free bets - usually pretty small, 5 or 10.
A couple of weeks ago I received an invitation by post from a very well known bookie offering 100 in free bets.
All I had to do was deposit 25 for the first free 25, and then stake 5 x 25 to get the next free 25, and repeat that 5 x 25 a couple more times to complete the free 100 in free bets.

The total turnover requirement was therefore 25 plus 3 x 125 = 400.
I traded the 400 for a total loss of just -7.46 and made a net profit of 76.05 on the free bet trades after commission at 5%, and deduction of the 7.46 it cost me to trade the 400 in bets.
That
-7.46 loss would have been smaller if the Lay odds of one of my trades hadn't gone against me and cost me -3.96.
When I started I had just 2.20 in my bookie account, but by today my bookie account stood at 220.95.
My total deposits were 100, so this offer has cost this bookie almost 120, whilst I have made a risk free 76..
All my bets were on horses.
I haven't looked for winners at all, as I only traded horses with favourable odds compared to Betfair odds.
I hit 4 winners (in 20 races), one of which dead heated.
I know that bookies set aside a budget for these offers, but how long can they stand losses such as this?
Some of my spreadsheet customers ask me which strategy is the best or most profitable.
My answer is always the same :- Trade bookies free bet offers for guaranteed winnings..
These trades are the only mathematical certainty that I know of in the gambling world.
It doesn't matter if you hit all winners, all losers, or something in between, and it doesn't matter if your bookie bet odds are smaller than your Betfair lay odds - you will win every time.
If you are not familiar with this strategy an explanation and a spreadsheet are available via this link.
Follow the link down that web page "Trade A Mathematical Certainty".
Just think of this strategy as a straight transfer of cash - bet with the bookie and lay the same selection on Betfair.
You will either transfer cash into your Betfair account from your bookie account, or transfer cash into your bookie account from your Betfair account.
When you trade your free bet, the bet side of your trade is free, so if you equalize your stakes for an equal win or lose profit, . . . .  Bingo !  . . . . .  You have a very good profit that more than covers any small loss you may incur from trading your deposit, or meeting turnover requirements.
Don't worry that the free bet stake isn't returned with winnings.
The spreadsheet shows the stakes required for several different bookie offers, all of which are very profitable.

If you haven't yet opened a boatload of bookie accounts and taken advantage of these wonderful free bets, a small fortune awaits you - This is FREE MONEY.. . . . . Long may it continue.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

July 20th 2009.  Open Golf 8 places payout. . . . . .  Bet and Lay Each Way.
Shortly after my July 13th post, Boylesprts upped their place market offer to a payout on the first 8 places paying one quarter the odds..
I haven't really concentrated on Golf markets before as golf isn't a sport that interests me, but Betfair has a range of golf markets that look interesting.
In relation to the Boylesport offer of a payout on 8 places, I looked at the Betfair Outright Winner market, plus the Top 5 Finish market.
The Boylesport offer applied only to bets placed the day before the competition started.

For anyone with an opinion as to who might go close in the Open Golf Championship, the Boylesports offer had some trading possibilities.
We would need to bet each way with the bookie
the day before the championship started, but the Betfair Win market and the Top 5 Finish markets continued until the last day of the competition.
Therefore after betting each way we could look to lay our golfer or golfers
at lower odds in those 2 markets as the game progressed, for guaranteed winnings.
Since the bookie paid to 8 places but we would only be laying to 5 places on Betfair, there would be a bumper payout with extra bet winnings if one of our golfers finished 6th, 7th or 8th.
We would only have lay liabilities up to 5 places, but the bookie would pay to 8 places on our bet.

As expected, the bookie odds were lower than the Betfair odds.
If we were able to bet high with the bookie and lay low on Betfair in both markets, we would have normal Hedge profits, plus additional winnings from the bookie.
if one of our golfers finished 6th, 7th or 8th.

A problem with these golf markets is that several players can tie for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. positions which would probably reduce all round profits.
In this year's Open Golf Championship,

  • 2 players had a play-off for first place, giving us 1st and 2nd,
  • 2 players tied for 3rd place,
  • 3 players tied for 5th place,
  • and 5 players tied for 8th place.

Any payout on 6th, 7th and 8th places would probably have been reduced from a quarter the odds to something like a quarter odds ( divided by 8 and multiplied by 3) but that's only my guess at how the bookies might calculate their payout.
Whatever the payout, it may be worth taking note of any bookie that offers to pay more places than one of the Betfair Place markets - - - for an extra payout on top of your normal Hedge profit.
Good luck with your golf trading, Howard.

July 18th 2009.  Lay the Betfair Place markets video.
Follow the link above to view videos on UTube showing the Excel spreadsheet for laying in the Betfair Place markets.
Input the odds of your runners and the sheet shows the stakes required for an eqaul profit or loss on all runners.
The 2nd video shows how to bias your staking to favour one horse using the Adjust feature.
Good luck with that, Howard.
July 13th 2009.  Bet the Betfair Place market in Horse Races, Open Golf 7 place payouts, and an equivalent market certainty.
After laying a few races in the Betfair Place markets, I decided to build a spreadsheet for betting the Place market.
The maths described below in my previous post for Laying also apply to Betting in the Place Only markets.


I looked at Laying in a few handicap races on Saturday July 11th, with the emphasis on the horses that were shortest in the betting.
A race that stood out was the 3:30 race at Chester, a 5F sprint for horses aged 3 yrs and older.
We all know about the strong draw bias in these races that favours horses drawn low, and sure enough, the first five in the betting were drawn in stalls 1 to 5.

So what would happen if we Layed these 5 runners in the Place market on Betfair ?
If we did that, we would be laying 5 well drawn, well fancied runners - not a particularly good strategy.

The first 3 home were drawn in stalls 2, 4 and 3.
The table below shows our profit or loss if we had Layed stalls 1 to 5 at the lay odds on offer just before 2:00pm - - each horse for a total payout of 20 including the returned stake.

Race plus No of horses to lay 1 Placed 2 Placed 3 Placed
Chester 3:30  5 of 11 layed 22.06 2.06 -17.94

As you can see, if only one horse from stalls 1 to 5 had been placed, we would have made a profit of 22.06.
However, all 3 placed horses started from the favoured stalls, for a loss of
-17.94.

Now, if we had BET those 5 horses instead of laying, the potential profit shown in black would be potential losses, and the potential losses shown in red would be potential profits.
So, this race would have produced a very nice profit if we had bet the horses drawn in stalls 1 to 5, which were also the first 5 horses in the betting.

If we had bet only 4 horses, there would have been a potential profit if only 2 had been placed.
There have to be some possibilities here for betting well drawn horses that are well fancied on form.
Visit my web site www.startingstalls.co.uk for the best draw advantage advice ever produced.
Combine that information with the Betfair Place market odds, and with a bit of luck and good judgement, there could be some good trades.
The Place (Bet) Dutching spreadsheet will be available shortly.
Apologies for the after-timing in the demonstration above, and the 2 below.

The table below shows the results of LAYING the 2 big handicaps at York on Saturday that paid on 4 places.

Race plus No of horses to lay 1 Placed 2 Placed 3 Placed 4 Placed
York 2:35  Lay 9 of 17 runners 32.44 2.44 -7.56 -27.56
York 3:10  Lay 9 of 20 runners 31.87 11.87 -8.13 -28.13

If we had BET those 9 shortest priced runners instead of laying in the 2 races above, our profit would be the figures shown in red, and our loss the figures in black.
We would have bet the 9 most strongly fancied runners, against almost an even money chance that 2 of the outsiders would make the frame.
3 runners were placed in the 2:35 race from the first 9 horses in the betting, and all 4 were from the first 9 in the betting in the 3:10 race.
There is some potential for betting the well fancied runners to profit, or laying the outsiders, with the possibility of losses being reduced to just one or 2 placed horses rather than all 3 or 4 that we might expect.
That's something that is not displayed on our Betfair screen, but use a spreadsheet to show the staking, and we can see exactly what our market position would be.

You can see now why I built an Excel spreadsheet to show our market position for Betting in Betfair's horse racing Place markets, as well as a laying sheet.
If you use either of these 2 spreadsheets, it would be best of course to lay runners that you wouldn't expect to be placed, and bet those that you would expect to be placed.
Either way, profit and liabilities can be balanced to suit your comfort level.
To adjust the returns, just lay more runners if laying to reduce potential payout, or bet less runners if betting to increase potential winnings.


Open Golf 7 places payouts
Today, I received notice by e-mail that Boylesports are paying out on 7 places each way for the British Open Golf Championships starting this week at Turnberry.

Having just looked at the Betfair golf markets, I note that we can trade a Top 5 or Top 10 finish.
There may be an opportunity to bet each way with a bookie, lay the win part of the bet, and then lay the place against a top 5 finish.
If we could do that, we could have 7 possible place bet winners against only 5 possible Lay liabilities.
I'll have to monitor a few bookie odds and compare them with the Betfair lay odds, and take into consideration the different markets.
Bookies aren't fools, so don't expect me to come back with some over generous bookie odds with smaller lay odds on Betfair, but you never know until you take a look !

I seem to remember SkyBet paying to 5 places in the John Smith's Handicap at York on Saturday, which gave me the idea in the first place.
Betfair only paid on the horses placed 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th.


In previous years, I have looked at laying several players in the British Open Golf Championship as they take the lead, or get well up the leader board.
If a strong favourite such as Tiger Woods dominates, it is impossible to lay a decent book, but if the lead changes a few times, it is possible to lay over a 100% book well before the end of the tournament.

Once you hit a 100% book with your lays, you can lay as many other players as you like and all you do is add to your profits, even if they are trading at huge odds.
Follow this link for a description of my Be A Bookie spreadsheet, and other bookie spreadsheet options :-  betandlay.co.uk/bookie  Be A Bookie, plus other Laying strategies and spreadsheets for Betfair trading.


An equivalent market certainty
It's been a busy week this week on my research and development front.
Last week, I noticed an equivalent market where the Bet odds were high in one market, but the Lay odds were low in an equivalent market.
Today, I started to investigate further, and tried something that I hadn't done before - I opened 2 Internet windows using my Betfair account and looked at trading the 2 markets side by side.
There are software packages available that can do this of course, but I had never tried it before just using my ordinary log in.
The 2 markets I looked at today didn't produce a trade, but I'll look again and trade the first opportunity I see with a spreadsheet that I have built for the purpose.
On a successful trade, there will be commission to pay, as I will have either a winning bet or a successful lay.
The formula for that is like a snowball.
As I add commission to my bet winnings, my lay increases to cover the extra 5%, which in turn means that I need a bigger bet stake to cover the lay + 5% commission, which means I need to increase my lay to cover that bigger bet, and so it goes around and around.
I have tried to tackle this "Commission in both markets" problem before but I have so far failed to get my stakes to equalize my profits exactly.
I use a small adjustment at present which does the trick, but a formula needing no adjustment would be better.
If you have the formula answer, I'll gladly do you a swap for a spreadsheet or 2.
Just drop me an e-mail.

This has been quite a long post.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

July 3rd 2009.  Lay the Betfair Place market in Horse Races.
I paper traded 0-0 in a few football matches, but of course found that I needed to reduce the timescale between placing my initial bet and my lay to exit.
Making an exit earlier reduced profits of course.
I also looked at insuring against an early goal by betting in the time of the First Goal market.
Covering 0-10 minutes, 11-20, and 21-30 minutes, eliminated my profit after commission, so that was a no-goer as well.
This 0-0 strategy is therefore proving too risky time-wise, so I won't be putting it up on my web pages.

I've since started to concentrate on the Betfair Horse Racing Place market.
As you know, Betfair displays your market position for all runners in the Win market as you place bets and lays.
However, in the Place market, it is impossible for Betfair to do that due to all the different combinations of stakes that can occur with 2, 3, and 4 placed horses.
In the Place market, Betfair only displays your liabilities for each individual horse, not all runners..

I have built a spreadsheet to get around that problem, and I am testing it with my cash this week.
If you would like a preview of how I tackled this problem and how the maths of Place market work follow this link for a write up.
A PayPal button will be added to that write up after I have tested the maths with my cash.
So far, everything has been spot on.

The liabilities of the Place market may not be as dangerous as you might imagine.
If 1 or 2 (or 3 in handicaps with 16+ runners) of your layed horses get placed, you can still show a profit, providing you balance your staking, and lay enough horses.
I will be laying some badly drawn horses this week.
All I need is just 1 or 2 well drawn horses (that I have not layed) to make the frame, and if I stake correctly, I could show a profit.
I will be using my web site www.startingstalls.co.uk to identify the well drawn and badly drawn horses.
My testing may take a while as I will only lay in races in which I expect a very strong draw advantage.
There are plenty of very strong draw advantages besides just Beverley 5F and Chester 5F.

I also started to build a 2nd spreadsheet to target more than one loser in the Place market, but things started to get rather complicated due to the different combinations of stakes - which is why Betfair only shows individual liabilities.
My current spreadsheet can be used to target one horse if you use the Adjust feature.
That may be as good as it gets on the Place market combinations front.
We'll see.

Excel spreadsheets are a quick and reliable way of doing calculations.
Purchase an excellent spreadsheet here for only 10..
Be A Bookie - Dutch The Place Market Excel spreadsheet.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view this spreadsheet.

This Be A Bookie Place Market spreadsheet calculates the lay stakes required to Lay up to 25 selections to an equal liability.

Input the amount of your Total Payout, and as you input the odds of your selections, the spreadsheet shows :-

  • The Lay stake required for each runner.

  • Equal liabilities against each runner.

  • Liability on each runner reducing as more runners are Layed.

  • Percentage of your book at all stages.

  • Total of Lay stakes at all stages - - -  "Skinner" amount.

  • Guaranteed winnings on one placed lay if your total book is over 100%

  • Guaranteed winnings on 2 placed lays if your total book is over 200%

  • Guaranteed winnings on 3 placed lays if your total book is over 300%.

The more runners you Lay, the less your liabilities become.
The more runners you Lay, the bigger the payout on a "Skinner" - - -  a horse you haven't layed.
In big handicaps, lay to a book percentage of over 300% and you will only have liabilities if you hit ALL 4 placed horses with your lays - - - - - otherwise you will make a profit.

This spreadsheet has an Adjust facility.
This Adjust feature allows you to bias your stakes in favour of one runner, or all runners except one.

For example, you may feel that the winner should come from the first few in the betting.
In a race of say, 8 runners, you may decide to Lay 5 of the runners, to show a profit on the first 4 of your lays, but break even on your 5th runner.
Stake correctly and you could :-

  • win if any one of the horses that you have layed is placed.

  • break even if one of those horses is placed, but make a bigger profit if one of the other 4 is placed.
  • clean up with a skinner if none of the horses you have layed are placed.

Be A Bookie - Dutch The Place Market Excel spreadsheet price = 10.
Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment button below.

Good luck with your trading, Howard.

June 17th 2009.  Trade 0-0 in Betfair Correct Score market with reduced risk.
I have done some fine tuning of my new strategy for Hedging 0-0 in Betfair's Correct Score Market described in my June 4th post.
  • Instead of waiting to place a single lay to complete our Hedge, we now place a series of lays which will get matched at timed intervals, once the game goes "In Play".
    The effect of that is to gradually reduce our bet liability as these lays gradually get matched.
  • We bet 0-0 before the Kick Off, and then offer all our lays as soon as the game goes "In Play", so there is no sitting about to do, watching our Betfair screen for 45 minutes.

A big problem before this fine tuning was that if a goal was scored before we placed our lay to complete our Hedge, we would lose all our bet stake.
This updated Excel spreadsheet reduces that risk, by gradually reducing our bet liability as time passes in the game.
Once all our lays are matched, we have good profit if a goal is scored, and break even if there is no goal by Half Time.
Here is an example of the gain in profits over a normal hedge of 0-0 using an initial bet of 20 on 0-0.
0-0 bet odds before the kick off 12.0, Lay at odds of 7.0 (at about 25 minutes).
Normal Hedge profit 11.43 before commission.
New strategy profit  22.63 after commission, providing a goal is scored (after about 25 minutes), break even if no goal by Half Time.
If a goal is scored before 25 minutes, the normal Hedge loses 20, but this new strategy loses smaller amounts which gradually reduce as 25 minutes approaches.

I'll report back after testing this on a few games.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

June 4th 2009.  Trade 0-0 in Betfair Correct Score market.
In between creating videos, I've been trying to get back into a bit of research on football strategies.
I was looking at trading the 0-0 score in Betfair's Correct Score market, and had a bit of a brainwave yesterday.
I built a new spreadsheet today for Hedging (betting and laying) the odds of the 0-0 score.
As with some other football strategies, ideally this strategy needs a goal to be scored to make a profit, but stakes can be adjusted on the spreadsheet to show a profit whether a goal is scored or if the score remains 0-0.
This is the basic strategy :-
  • Before the Kick Off, bet the 0-0 score in the Correct Score market.
  • After some time has passed in the game, Lay 0-0.
    Nothing unusual there you might say, but if a goal is scored in the First Half after we have placed our bet and lay, this Hedge trade shows a much bigger profit than a normal bet and lay of the 0-0 odds . . . . providing we stake correctly.
  • If the score is still 0-0 at Half Time, place a 2nd lay to break even on the whole trade.

To sum up.  We use a bet and a lay if a goal is scored, and place a 2nd lay if the score remains 0-0.
If a goal is scored we make very good profits, but if the score remains 0-0, we aim to break even.
We can adjust our stakes to show a profit at 0-0 or any other score if we choose, but those profits will be smaller than if we aim to profit only if a goal is scored in the First Half of the game.

I will be testing this new strategy in the next week or two.
Looking back on my records of the odds in past matches, this strategy can easily produce 50% or 100% more profit than your normal bet and lay Hedge of the 0-0 score line.
The size of those profits depend on how long we are prepared to wait before placing our In Play lay - but after all, that is normal for any Hedge trade.
Hedge profits are always related to time passing whilst the odds change, or other factors such as goals being scored of course.
The difference here is that profits reach very impressive levels if we can wait 20 or 25 minutes or longer into the game before placing our lay on 0-0.

Next, I'll be looking at Dutching 0-0 with other scores and involve a goal to see if bumper profits can also be made from that.
I've already done some work on Dutching other scores in a similar way to this before, but I didn't involve 0-0 and I didn't use a goal as a trigger for profits.
Now that I have discovered how to combine Hedging 0-0 with a goal, maybe I can sort out Dutching several scores by using a goal as well this time around.
Exciting stuff. . . . . . . . I'll keep you informed.
Good luck with your trading, Howard

May 22nd 2009.   Videos on hold.
I am now looking to transfer my videos to UTube, so I have removed my video links for the time being.
In order to move my videos, I need to use some different video software.
Once I get sorted out with this second software package, I'll put some more links up, and maybe then I can get back to looking at some new strategies again.
Good luck with your trading, Howard
May 15th 2009.  Mission accomplished.
After a couple of hard weeks, I've moved all my web sites onto a new server.
In line with that, I've sorted out some domain names which are now shown on the links above.
I should be able to get on with my life again now, and look at developing something new.
As usual, I'll post my progress on here.
If you visit my web sites and find any links that don't work, please e-mail me and I'll sort them out.
Good luck with your trading, Howard
May 4th 2009.   New web site location and videos.
I am now working on moving all my web sites, including this one, onto a new server.
This blog will then live on www.strategy-blog.co.uk a new domain name for my blog.

I will keep both this web site open for a while until I get traffic transferred to the new site - that's if I can get Google to find the new location.

Last week, I got hold of some software for publishing videos to a web site.
Once I get to grips with that, I will be able to show just what my spreadsheets can do, and also explain strategies more clearly.
That should be miles better than trying to explain things in writing.

So far, on playback, my videos have some old bloke droning on doing the commentary.
I was expecting a sexy young fella's voice. . . . . . . dream on.
Good luck with your trading, Howard

April 24th 2009.   The end of an era.
I found out today that the free web space that I use for my web sites on Geocities will cease to exist sometime this summer.
I will be looking for alternative free space for my web sites, and once I get things transferred, I'll post the new links on here and on my other web sites..

It will take time for traffic to find my new location.
I only hope my Google rankings get back up to where they are at present.
This is something of a disaster.
It will take a lot of work to transfer my sites, which include a few holiday cottage sites, but my main concern is my spreadsheet web sites.
I get a lot of entertainment out of the enquiries that they generate.

If I disappear from the face of the Internet planet, you'll know I've been cut off in my prime.
Oh dear.  Oh dear, Howard.

April 22nd 2009.  Lay the Draw testing ... short odds solution.
I don't like to see blogs that show results of trades and discussions about actual trades and profits, but I feel the need to show the result of my trade on the Liverpool - Arsenal match from last night, Tuesday April 21st.
The match finished as a draw with a score of 4-4.
I layed the draw before the kick off for 20 at odds of 3.9 and placed an insurance bet of 4.64 on 0-0 at odds of 13.5 to break even if there were no goals.
At 0-1 to Arsenal, the odds of the draw were shorter than before the Kick Off, but using my new exit strategy, I was still able to exit with a profit in the Match Odds market.
My insurance bet in the Correct Scores put me slightly into the red overall.
This is a screenshot of my Betfair position once I had traded out of the game.

You can see that my losing bet on 0-0 puts me into the red with Plus 1.91 for the Draw result in Match Odds, less 4.64 for the 0-0 bet in Correct Scores.
My bank was still pretty much undamaged, but without this new exit strategy, I could have taken a substantial hit.

After the first goal, there were only a few minutes during this game when the odds of the Draw were bigger than before the Kick Off - - -

  • after the score of 2-1 at 56 minutes until 2-2 at 67 minutes,
  • and again when the score reached 3-4 at 90 minutes, until 4-4 at 93 minutes.

At all other times after the first goal at 36 minutes, it was impossible to show a profit by betting the draw at bigger odds than before the kick off.

I used my exit strategy to trade to profit after the first goal at 36 minutes, and as you can see, I had finished trading by 54 minutes into the game.
I recovered that loss and more tonight, Wednesday, in the next game I traded, without increasing my stakes in any way.
This screenshot and description of how the odds performed in the Liverpool - Arsenal game last night shows how my exit strategy got me out of trouble in what was a very awkward game in which to trade the Draw..

When the odds of the draw lengthened at 56 minutes to be bigger than before the Kick Off, I had already made my exit from the Match Odds market to profit.
Only my insurance bet on the 0-0 score line made this a losing trade overall.
This is becoming a very safe way to trade football matches.

My Hedge The Draw spreadsheet package now contains 2 very powerful spreadsheets - Hedge 3 Bets, and this new Dutching spreadsheet - at present, yours for only a tenner.

Good luck with your trading, Howard.

April 18th  Lay the Draw strategy for Betfair Match Odds, short Draw odds solution.... Testing.
I have been testing this strategy by watching several games at a time on Betfair in order to get a game or 2 in which the odds of the draw didn't lengthen sufficiently after one goal.
I haven't watched many games like that unfortunately, but I have still been able to improve my trading of the draw.

Now that I have this new exit strategy for games in which the outsider of the 2 teams scores first, or the odds of the draw don't lengthen for some other reason, these are the only 2 scenarios that I can come up with at present that might cause some financial damage.

  • 2 quick goals that take the score to 1-1 and the game ends 1-1.
  • An early goal and an equalizer scored well into the 2nd half (roughly 60 to 80 minutes).

At present, I would expect to profit or exit pretty much unscathed from all other games.

I have started to look at placing an insurance bet on 0-0 to Hedge the 0-0 score with the draw for a profit if the game ends 0-0.
The insurance bet to profit is a little more expensive than betting 0-0 to break even.
However, if a game ends 0-0, the profit from a lay of the draw and a bet of 0-0 for profit is quite big in comparison to any other part of this trade.
By placing a slightly bigger 0-0 insurance bet, profits from games with goals are reduced, but at the moment, I feel these 0-0 profits might be worth pursuing.

Example.  Tomorrow's Man. Utd. - Everton game.
Odds of the draw = 3.70.   Odds for 0-0 = 10.0.
Lay the draw for 20 at odds of 3.70 = liabilities of 20 x 2.7 = 54.00.
Divide 54 by the 0-0 odds minus 1 = 54 divided by 9 = 6.00.
Bet 6.00 on the 0-0 score line, and we break even (before commission) if the game ends 0-0.
We have bet winnings of 54 from our bet of 0-0, and liabilities of 54 from our lay of the draw.

Now, if we decide to Hedge to profit if there is no score, we need to bet 7.40 on the 0-0 score line.
If the game ends 0-0, that bet guarantees winnings of 12.60 before commission deductions.
Here are the maths :-
Winning bet on 0-0 = 9 x 7.40 = 66.60, less liabilities from our lay of the draw 2.7 x 20 = 54.00.
66.60 - 56 = 12.60 profit if the game ends 0-0.
If the game doesn't end in a draw, we have a successful lay of 20 minus a losing bet stake of 7.40 = a profit of 12.60.

Of course in practice, we wouldn't leave ourselves exposed in such a way.
If a goal is scored, we must take some action.
At 1-0 or 0-1, another goal could take the score to 1-1 and we would have big liabilities from our lay of the draw, plus our losing stake from our bet of 0-0.

After one goal is scored, the odds of the draw to break even would need to be :-
5.30 for the 6.00 break even stake.
5.90 for the 7.40 hedge to profit stake.
Any odds above those at one goal, and both show a profit.

If Everton score first tomorrow, we wouldn't expect the odds of the draw to increase much since Man. Utd. are a very strong favourite.
If Everton score first, I would employ my new exit strategy.

Just to repeat what is on the previous post below :-
This exit strategy for games in which the odds of the draw don't lengthen will definitely not be available anywhere else, and I  would guess that it would be very difficult to duplicate using a calculator.
My Hedge The Draw spreadsheet package now contains 2 very powerful spreadsheets - Hedge 3 Bets, and this new Dutching spreadsheet - at present, yours for only a tenner.

Good luck with your trading, Howard.

April 3rd 2009.  Lay the Draw strategy for Betfair Match Odds, short Draw odds solution.
I have abandoned Betfair's Under / Over 2.5 goals markets for a while in favour of this old favourite :-
  • Lay the Draw.
  • After a goal, Bet the Draw (as the Draw odds are now bigger) to exit the market with a Hedge profit.

Quite a long time ago, I built 2 spreadsheets which enabled me to Dutch a boatload of bets or lays, and equalize those stakes to exit to profit, providing I traded to either an under round book if I was betting, or an over round book if I was laying.
As you probably know, Dutching means placing several Bets for an equal profit whatever the outcome of your event, or placing several Lays
for an equal profit whatever the outcome of your event.

I didn't have a particular strategy in mind when I built those 2 Dutching sheets, so I had no use for them until just last week.
A spreadsheet customer sent me a bet and lay solution that he used to exit the market if he had Layed the draw, and a goal had been scored by the outsider of the 2 teams.
As you probably know, under those circumstances, quite often the odds of the Draw don't lengthen significantly, so it can be impossible to Bet the Draw to exit your trade to a Hedge profit.
If the least fancied of the 2 teams scores first, the market expects the favourite team to equalize and score more goals to go on and win the game - therefore, the odds of the Draw don't lengthen at a score of 1-0 or 0-1.
Also, an early goal scored in a game with 2 evenly rated teams can also cause the Draw odds to be quite static at a score of 1-0 or 0-1.

I took a look at my customer's betting and laying solution, which worked a treat, but his exit strategy left the trade with unbalanced profits.
Here, I had found a use for my spreadsheets.
My sheets use a different exit strategy from that sent to me by my spreadsheet customer, but after using my new strategy, we usually have profits balanced across all 3 outcomes, Home team win, Away team win, and Draw.

Now if I Lay the Draw and the odds don't lengthen at 1-0 or 0-1, I can immediately put my trade into profit, and exit my trade in most games with a profit.
The best scenario for a profit if the Draw odds don't lengthen,  is if the favourite of the 2 teams scores an equalizing goal to get the score to 1-1 well before the end of the game..
At that point we can exit to profit.
At present, the only scenarios I can see that would cause a loss, are :-

  • 2 quick goals that take the game to 1-1 and the game ends 1-1.
  • An early goal and a very late equalizer with the game ending 1-1.
  • The outsider of the 2 teams scores first and a very late equalizer with the game ending 1-1.

At present, I would expect a profit from all other games.
This strategy should work in any game, whether the 2 teams are equally matched before the kick off or if one of the teams is a very strong favourite.
We are still looking to Hedge the Draw by Laying Low and Betting High, but this new exit strategy makes the trade a lot safer by providing a solution to the Draw odds not lengthening problem.
If you use an insurance bet on 0-0, this strategy will usually recover your lost stake if a goal or goals are scored and still show a profit.

I will probably be putting my price up for this Hedge The Draw spreadsheet package.
I have several customers doing a bit of testing at present, so if you are interested in trading the Draw very safely, now is the time to step in and get a cheap spreadsheet package.
Once I have feedback from the testing, and I have more experience of the best way to use this exit strategy (as there are several options), the price of this Hedge The Draw spreadsheet package will be going up.
This exit strategy will definitely not be available anywhere else, and I  would guess that it would be very difficult to duplicate using a calculator.
My Hedge The Draw spreadsheet package now contains 2 very powerful spreadsheets - Hedge 3 Bets, and this new Dutching spreadsheet - at present, yours for only a tenner.

Good luck with your trading, Howard.

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