Archive of activity to March
2009
March 23rd
2009. Unders, Overs, and Spread Betting.
I've been away for 2 weeks.
Nowhere exotic, just a farm holiday, and putting a few miles in
on my bicycle.
I hope you had a good Cheltenham.
As usual, the bookies excelled on the free bets front during
Cheltenham week - unfortunately mainly for new customers only.
No computer for 2 weeks was a bit frustrating, but hopefully I
can pick up where I left off with developing a solution to
trading Betfair Under and Over football markets with insurance
against no goals, or early goals.
I have 2 Excel spreadsheets that I
use most of the time, and reckon I can trade just about anything
by using these 2 spreadsheets for my Dutching and Hedging.
Be A Bookie can be used to Bet or Lay (Dutch) up to 25
selections for an equal outcome whatever the result.
There is a Bet spreadsheet and a Lay sheet in that package..
I use
Hedge 3 Bets for trading odds movements.
That sheet can be used to trade 1, 2, or 3 sets of odds in any
market, and can be used to trade across more than one market.
To get around the Under and Over time
and goals problem, I
have been bolting bits of these 2 spreadsheets together looking
for an insurance bet or lay in the Correct Score market to cover
early goals or 2 quick goals, either of which can cause big
problems when trading Betfair's Under and Over Goals markets.
A Bet or Lay in the Correct Score market didn't provide an
adequate insurance solution, so I started to look for an
insurance bet solution in Spread Betting.
A problem with an insurance bet
or lay in the Betfair
Correct Score market is that we are actually trading within what
amounts to the same market.
As explained below, the Betfair football Under and Over Goals
markets have to be made up of the equivalent odds from the
Correct Score market, otherwise the 2 markets could be traded
against one another for guaranteed winnings.
If we bet or lay Under or Over 2.5 Goals and use a bet or lay in
the Correct Score market for insurance, we are trading parts of
the same BASE market - the Correct Scores.
As parts of one market shorten or lengthen, so does the other -
both in line with the same time and goals.
A better solution may be to use an
unrelated market, or less related market to provide an insurance
bet to cover either no goals at all, or an early goal or 2 quick
goals.
By using a Spread Bet or Lay (Buy or Sell), we may be able to
cover no goals and 1 or 2 goals, and Trade Over 2.5 Goals
.............. or cover 3 or more goals, and trade Under
2.5 Goals.
I'm no expert at spread betting, but as with Betfair markets,
the spread betting odds change in relation to time and goals, so
there may be some possibilities here.
I know already that there are odds differences, and the rate at
which the odds shorten is different, so there may be some
trading possibilities between Betfair and a Spread Betting
market.
I have built a very good spread betting spreadsheet which I can
bolt onto my existing Excel spreadsheets, so I'll be
investigating further.
With a bit of luck, this may lead to the development of other
strategies, but a trading strategy for Betfair Under/Over 2.5
Goals is the priority at present.
Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
March 5th
2009.
Trading 2.5 and
3.5 Goals.
I've watched and traded quite a few Premiership games over
the past week or two, but there have been quite a few games that
were 0-0 at half Time.
Although that's been good for my 2.5 Goals strategy, and
probably everyone else's, it hasn't
been much good from a testing point of view.
Now that I am using a Lay of 0-0 as insurance against no goals
being scored, I can exit pretty much unscathed after 25 minutes
or so if a goal is scored..
Previously with a bet on 0-0 as
insurance rather than a lay, the break even time was about 30
minutes if a goal was scored.
That's a slight improvement, but the problem of a loss if 2
quick goals or early goals are scored still remains.
Apologies if you are already
familiar with the following :-
Whilst the score is 0-0, the odds of Under 2.5 Goals must equal
the combined odds of all scores with 2 goals or less ie. 0-0,
0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2, and 2-0, otherwise we could trade those
scores against the Under and Over market to guaranteed winnings.
If a goal is scored,
the odds of Under
2.5 Goals must still equal the combined odds of all scores with
2 goals or less ie. If the Home team score - - - - 1-0,
1-1, and 2-0.
If the Away team score - - - - - -0-1, 1-1, and 0-2.
After a 2nd goal,
the odds of Under
2.5 Goals must equal the odds of the one remaining score.
If the Home team score again, the Under 2.5 Goals odds will be
equal to the odds of 2-0, or near enough.
At 1-1, the Under 2.5 Goals odds would be equal to the odds of
1-1.
Throughout the game, the odds of the current score shorten
continuously as time passes.
As goals are scored, the odds change, with the new current score
more or less taking over where the previous current score left
off.
3 Goals scored by the Home team would see the odds of 0-0, then
1-0, 2-0, and 3-0 taking over from one another and shortening -
those being the current scores
Any change in the Under 2.5 Goals odds affects the Over 2.5
Goals odds in order to maintain a book percentage of around
100%.
Whilst the Under odds shorten, the Over odds lengthen, and vice
versa.
As we all know from trading Unders
and Overs, as goals are scored, we will be caught out by goals
being scored, unless we have been in the market for quite a
considerable time.
If you can stay in the market long enough with no goals being
scored, it is possible to get out with a small profit or very
little damage after one goal.
A first goal just before Half Time for instance won't usually
cause the Under 2.5 Goals odds to rise above what they were
before the Kick Off.
Therefore, if we can find a way of bringing forward the time of
our Break Even odds, (the odds required to exit with no loss),
the time required to stay in the market becomes less.
To get around this time problem, I
have started to look elsewhere for a solution.
Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
Feb 23rd
2009. Trading Under / Over 2.5 Goals with insurance.
Since the Feb 11th entry, I have had a change of direction.
The Dutching exit strategy that I was using, produced an all red
screen far too soon.
By paper trading the odds from past games that I have recorded,
I knew that 2 or 3 early goals put my spreadsheet profit or loss into the
red.
Although the basic strategy is sound, the Dutching exit strategy
proved to be too risky.
I have yet to come up with
a suitable exit strategy for that one.
I was lucky that I
didn't get caught
out whilst testing with my cash.
I was looking for low scoring games, and luckily, I didn't hit a game with
more than 1 goal in the first half.
So, it was back to the drawing
board, looking for an insurance bet this time, rather than an
exit strategy.
Normally, I would use a bet on the 0-0 score in the Betfair
Correct Score market for insurance against a game ending 0-0.
Whilst the score remains 0-0, you have
winnings to cover just about any bet you care to place.
Nothing wrong with that.
This time however, I looked at a Lay of 0-0 instead of a Bet.
A problem with a 0-0 Lay is that
whilst there is no score, the odds shorten, throughout the whole
game.
Therefore in a 0-0 game, we would need to Hedge out (by betting
0-0) at some point, to a loss probably bigger than our Lay
stake.
The advantage of a 0-0 Lay, is that after a goal is scored, we
have profit from our 0-0 Lay, whereas an insurance Bet on 0-0
causes a loss.
I worked out how to exit to zero loss at just about any time up
until about 55 minutes using a 0-0 Lay, and in doing that
discovered that a goal after 30 minutes or so, put this exit
strategy into profit.
I also discovered that by adjusting my stakes slightly, I could
:-
- Choose to break even at any
time, with a profit if a goal is scored after 30 minutes.
- Choose to make a profit
at any
time, with a profit if a goal is scored after 30 minutes.
- Choose to make a loss,
at any
time, but make a bigger profit if a goal is scored after 30
minutes.
Those 3 options can be done from an
initial Lay of 0-0, if you can figure out the staking.
I've been testing this with cash, using small stakes, trading to
Break Even initially, but for a specific profit yesterday.
So far, I have only hit one game that had a goal scored, and
escaped with a £0.45 loss ..... not much damage there.
Yesterday, I profited in 2 games that were 0-0 at Half
Time.
Now that I have discovered how to break even, or even exit to
profit using a 0-0 Lay as insurance, this may open up a few
possibilities for new strategies.
Whilst I'm racking my brains on that
one, I'll continue to trade 2.5 Goals with my 0-0 insurance lay
and hope I hit some games with a goal late in the First Half,
for a bit of extra profit.
If I can do that, and I am lucky enough not to hit a game with 2
quick goals, I should come out in front in the long term.
Unfortunately, 2 quick goals whilst trading the Betfair 2.5
Goals market will probably wipe out my hard earned small profits
in one go, along with everyone else's. We'll see.
Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
Feb 18th
2009. Six of the best !!
If you enjoy a good laugh, follow the link below and take a
look at page 2 of that thread.
A bit of corporal punishment administered at the right time
never did anyone any harm ....... at least it didn't
when I was alive - whoops !! - a lad.
I was looking at my hit counters for
my web sites the other day, and noticed a link from a forum.
I followed the link and looked at the forum, and found that some
chap had copied the text directly from my web sites into his
thread.
He hadn't even altered any of the text !!
The strategies described then looked as if he had invented them
.... Cheeky sod !!
I e-mailed the web site concerned
and asked for the thread to be removed, but even now, after
about a week, I have heard nothing from them, and the thread is
still there.
I also signed up as a member so that I could post on the thread
concerned.
I put up some links, so at least I may get a hit or 2 of free
traffic.
Here's the link :-
http://www.soccervista.com/forum/betting-strategy/4007-football-strategies-betfair-trading.html
These people appear to have no
respect whatsoever for copyright - either the person who put up
the post, or the web site owners.
What does this chap hope to gain from putting up strategies that
are not his own ?
He's been a bit naughty there, and deserves " 6 of the best ".
Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
Feb 11th
2009.
I have built an excellent strategy with associated Excel spreadsheet around
what is described below, January 27th.
This new strategy involves Dutching of the Correct Score market,
and Hedging of those scores.
I have been testing this new strategy on Betfair.
I started testing with small stakes to check the maths of the
spreadsheet, and now I am increasing my stakes.
This Trade Correct Scores strategy produces guaranteed profits
at Half Time if no more than one goal has been scored during the
First Half of a game.
That is, at a score of 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1 at Half Time, there is a
guaranteed profit.No doubt
you immediately see that you could trade those scores by trading
the Under/Over 1.5 goals market, but if you did that, you would
not always have guaranteed winnings at those scores at Half
Time.
If you were to Bet Under 1.5 Goals before the Kick Off with the
intention of Hedging by Laying Under 1.5 Goals at Half Time, or
Dutching by Betting Over 1.5 Goals to cover all possible scores
at Half Time, there is a very good chance that you would lose
all your stake in some games, and some of it in others.
If an early goal was scored,
there is a very good chance that the market would expect more
goals to be scored.
In such a game, the Under 1.5 Goals Lay odds would lengthen,
making Hedging to profit impossible, and the Over 1.5 Goals Bet
odds would shorten, making Dutching (Betting) to cover all
possible scores to profit also impossible.
A considerable amount of time would need to pass in the game
before the market would decide that there would be no further
score, and move the odds back in your favour.
Whilst all that time is passing, your money would be at risk,
and of course, further goals could be scored whilst you are
sweating it out.
If a 2nd goal
was scored you would lose all your stake.
This strategy eliminates those
problems.
Problems can
arise with this strategy if more than one goal is scored in the First Half, but I
have developed an exit strategy to get around that problem.
The spreadsheet shows the stakes required to trade out of those
situations either to profit, or (hopefully), a small loss.
Besides testing this strategy
myself, I have a customer also testing who will let me know of
any problems he has with the instructions or implementing this
Correct Score strategy on Betfair.
Once we have ironed out any problems, this strategy will be
available on
my football trading web site.
So far, although I haven't traded
many games, I have won every time using this Correct Scores
trading strategy.
The dreaded big hit that wipes out all my hard earned gains may
of course be just around the corner.
Let's hope not.
Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
Jan 27th
2009. Trading the Betfair Correct Score market.
A big problem of trading on Betfair, is that mistakes are
usually very costly.
Hard earned profits built up over several trades can be wiped
out with a single market move that goes against us.
If Hedging, (betting high and laying low to guaranteed
winnings), one solution to this problem could be to target
falling markets for your trades, rather than rising markets.
For the same initial stake, it is
cheaper to Bet First, rather than Lay First.
A Bet First trade aims to take advantage of odds that are
getting shorter, whilst a Lay First trade aims to take advantage
of odds that are getting bigger.
( Note that if you trade to the same liability, gains or losses
are equal for both a rising or falling market.
In the examples below, the liabilities are not the same, only
the initial £10 stakes are equal ).
To demonstrate, here are some
maths of 2 very extreme cases.
Suppose we Bet £10 at odds of 20.
The odds go against us and we have to Lay at odds of 1000.0
To equalize our trade for an equal loss no-matter what the
outcome, we must Lay £0.20 at odds of 1000.
A winning Bet £10 x 19 = £190, Less Lay £0.20 x 999
-£199.80 = a loss of
-£9.80.
A successful Lay, £0.20 less losing Bet of £10 =
-£9.80.
You cannot lose more than your initial stake of £10.
However if
we Lay £10 at odds of 20 and have to Bet at odds of 5, when we
equalize our trade, we lose more than our initial stake, in this
case, -£30
:-
Lay £10 at 20 = £10 x 19 = liability of
-£190.
Bet £40 at odds of 5.0 = 4 x £40 = £160 =
-£30.
If the bet wins, we win £160 but lose
-£190
=
-£30.
If the bet loses we have a successful Lay of £10, less a losing
bet of £40 =
-£30.
These are extreme cases, but they
demonstrate that losses can be limited to a maximum of a single
stake if we target a falling market, for a Bet First trade.
So, where will we find a market
with odds that will always fall, and never rise ?
The answer is in the Betfair, In Play, football Correct Score
market or Half Time Score market..
This is how the odds perform in the Betfair Correct Score
market.
During a game, whilst there are no goals, the odds of 0-0, 1-0
and 0-1 drop consistently until about 70 or 75 minutes.
After that time, the market will decide that the outcome could
be 0-0, so the 0-0 odds continue to fall, but the odds of 1-0
and 0-1 start to rise.
At Half Time, all 3 of those odds will have almost halved.
If a goal is scored, 2 of those
odds are eliminated .......... We have 2 losing bets.
The odds of the score that is now the current score may drop quite dramatically, and
will continue to drop so long as no more goals are scored.
To sum up, we can guarantee that all 3 of these odds will drop
for around 70 minutes whilst the score remains 0-0.
If a goal is scored, one of those odds may drop significantly,
but we will have 2 losing bets.
At a score of 1-0 or 0-1, there
are obviously problems of bigger losses than gains there, so
what happens if we trade 1-0, 0-1 plus 1-1 (instead of 0-0) ?
Whilst the score remains 0-0, the odds of 1-1 will probably remain quite
constant until about Half Time.
Now if a goal is scored,
- We have only 1 losing bet,
and 2 bets still In Play.
- The odds of one of our
remaining 2 bets could drop significantly, possibly both,
offering good profits.
- Whilst the score remains
0-0, we have 2 trades that will show profit, and 1 trade
that will almost break even.
- As this is a Bet First
trade, the maximum we can lose after 1 goal is scored, is a
single stake or thereabouts, unless the odds of our 2
remaining bets don't shorten for some reason.
I have an excellent spreadsheet
suitable for trading 3 sets of odds at the same time.
This is the spreadsheet I use most often, my
Hedge 3 Bets Excel spreadsheet.
If a 2nd goal is scored, taking the score to 2-0 or 0-2 before
we have placed our Lays to exit the market, we lose 3 stakes.
That is the worst that can happen.
I will be
investigating this Correct Score market strategy further in the next few
weeks, and will keep you posted on this one.
I have already started putting my money where my spreadsheet is
using my
Hedge 3 Bets Excel spreadsheet.
Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
|
Jan 18th
2009. Odds movement of
Half Time Scores market.
I built a spreadsheet for trading 0-0 in the Betfair Half Time
Scores market with 0-0 in the Correct Score market.
This is the basic
Hedge strategy for
trading 0-0 using
the Correct Score and Half Time Scores markets combined :-
-
Before the Kick
Off, bet 0-0 in
the Correct
Score market.
-
After some time
has passed in
the game, Lay
0-0 in the Half
Time Score
market.
-
At Half Time, if
the score is
still 0-0,
Lay 0-0 in the
Correct Score
market.
If there is a goal in the
first half, we have a successful Lay less a losing Bet = Profit.
End of trade ..... no market available for 0-0 in the
Correct Score market at Half Time.
If the score is still 0-0 at
Half Time, we aim to break even.
We have Bet 0-0 High (before the Kick Off) and Layed 0-0 Low in the Correct Score market
(at Half Time).
Profit from that trade covers our Lay liabilities from our
Lay of 0-0 in the Half Time Score market.
To make this strategy work I
needed to estimate what the odds of 0-0 in the Correct
Score market would be at half Time.
I tried to do that mathematically, but found that a simple
list of odds taken from several matches showing the 0-0 odds
before the kick off and at Half Time gave an excellent
indication of what to expect the 0-0 odds to be at Half Time
in Betfair's Correct Score market.
0-0 Odds |
Kick Off |
Half Time |
Correct Score Market |
Bet odds |
LAY odds |
Stoke Fulham |
9.8 |
3.35 |
Liverpool Everton |
10 |
3.7 |
Man C Wigan |
11 |
4.3 |
Man C PSG |
11.5 |
3.65 |
Berlin Galatas |
11.5 |
3.9 |
Man C Everton |
11.5 |
4 |
Liverpool Stoke |
12.5 |
4 |
Middles NT |
12.5 |
4.5 |
Spurs Man U |
13 |
4.6 |
Mk Dons Colchester |
15.5 |
5 |
Arsenal Bolton |
17 |
6 |
You can see from the table
above that there is a definite relationship between the 0-0
odds before the Kick Off and the 0-0 odds at Half Time in
the Correct Score market.
Although this is only a small sample, only one other match
that I looked at fell outside the general trend shown there,
Blythe Spartans v Blackburn Bet Odds 17.5, Lay odds 5.5.
Using Correct Score market
estimated odds for 0-0, I can calculate (before the Kick
Off), the stakes required to break even if I need to Lay
0-0 at half Time in the Correct Score market.
Stake correctly, and I should have enough
Correct Score market profit to cover any liabilities of my
Lay of 0-0 in the Half Time Score market, if the score is still 0-0 at Half Time.
To make this strategy work, I need to wait for the 0-0 Lay
odds in the Half Time Scores market to drop.
The odds in the Half Time Scores
market are very consistent in my opinion.
In the few matches in which I have watched the odds
movements on Betfair, the odds of the current score in this
market drop by
about half a point every 10 minutes.
So, if the odds of 0-0 in Betfair's Half Time Scores market
are 3.0 before the kick off, we can expect those odds to be
about 2.5 after 10 minutes play, and 2.0 at 20 minutes, and
close to 1.5 at 30 minutes.
For example, in the Derby v
Notts Forest game Jan 23rd, the
Half Time Score market Lay odds for 0-0 before the Kick Off
were 2.98.
After after 9 minutes play the 0-0 Lay
odds were
2.42 and at 10 minutes
2.32.
A goal was scored at 36 minutes taking the score to 1-0.
Using minimum stakes :-
Before the Kick Off, Bet 0-0 in the Correct Score market £2
at odds of 11.5.
Before the Kick Off, Lay 0-0 in the Half Time Scores market
£2.50 at odds of 2.4 (after 10 minutes play).
Profit at 36 minutes = Successful Lay £2.5, less losing Bet
£2 = Plus £0.50.
Commission on £2.50 successful lay at 5% = £0.13, (since
these are 2 separate markets).
Net profit = £0.50 less £0.13 = £0.37.
The risk was that I had a £2 bet at risk for 10 minutes
play, to make £0.37.
We can compare that profit
with the profit we would have made if we had traded the 0-0
odds in the Half Time Scores market, by Betting 0-0 before
the kick off, and Laying 0-0 in the same market after 10
minutes play.
Using my
Hedge To A Profit Target spreadsheet, we can input the
Bet odds before the Kick off, the Lay odds at 10 minutes,
and the profit of £0.39 (before commission) required to
achieve a net profit of £0.37.
Bet odds |
Lay odds |
Profit target |
0.39 |
2.98
|
2.40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bet stake |
Lay stake |
win |
lose |
1.61
|
2.00 |
0.39 |
0.39 |
Now, we can see that if we
traded the odds only in the Half Time Scores market, we
would have to risk only £1.61 for 10 minutes, as opposed to
only £2 if we trade across 2 separate markets.
This strategy of trading 0-0
in Betfair's Half Time Scores market and Correct Score
market has not proved worthwhile.
It's back to the drawing board once again.
Good luck with your
trading, Howard |
Jan 11th 2009.
Trading the Half
Time Scores in Betfair football
markets.
This will be a Hedge
strategy.
I have only looked
at the odds of a
couple of games so
far in relation to
the Betfair Half
Time Scores market,
but there are
certainly
opportunities to
trade this market
with the Correct
Score market.
We should be able to
Bet the higher odds
of the Correct Score
market and Lay the
lower odds of the
Half Time Score
market to Hedge to
profit.
If we can then trade
out to profit at
Half time, we could
have a strategy to
bet on.
This is a basic
Hedge strategy for
trading 0-0 :-
-
Before the Kick
Off, bet 0-0 in
the Correct
Score market.
-
After some time
has passed in
the game, Lay
0-0 in the Half
Time Score
market.
-
At Half Time,
Lay 0-0 in the
Correct Score
market.
If a goal is scored
during the First
Half, we will have a
losing bet but a
successful Lay.
We will have Bet
high and Layed low
to Hedge to profit,
so no need to trade
at Half Time.
If there are no
goals in the First
Half, we will have
Lay liabilities, but
we should be able to
cover those and
Hedge to break even
by Laying the 0-0
score in the Correct
Score market, to
complete our Hedge
of our original Bet
on 0-0.
Problems will be :-
-
The main problem
will be a goal
scored whilst we
are waiting for
the 0-0 odds to
drop in the Half
Time Score
market, before
we have placed
our Lay.
If that happens,
we have a small
losing bet on
0-0 in the
Correct Score
market. End of
trade.
-
As we are
trading across 2
markets, we
could have
commission to
pay in 2
markets.
-
In order to
place our Lay at
something close
to the correct
£££ amount, we
will need to
estimate the 0-0
odds at Half
Time in the
Correct Score
market.
-
Note that
it is impossible
to place both
the 0-0 bet in
the Correct
Score market and
the Lay in the
Half Time market
before the
Kick Off,
and trade to
profit at Half
Time if there
are no goals.
To make this
work, we must
wait for time to
pass in the game
in order to
obtain lower Lay
odds for our Lay
in the Half Time
Score market.
As with all football
markets, odds
movements are
dependant on 2
factors - Time and
Goals.
Whilst there are no
goals, we can easily
make this strategy
work.
I definitely feel a
spreadsheet coming
on.
Good luck with your
trading, Howard |
|
11th Jan 2009.
Laying the Betfair Under and Over football markets.
Through December 2008 and early January 2009 I looked at developing a
strategy for Dutching these markets.
I originally looked at trading the Betfair Under and Over 2.5 Goals, but later
traded Under and Over 1.5 Goals.
Below are some of the notes building up to the building of the Excel spreadsheet
for this trading strategy.
After a very promising start for this strategy, a problem was a goal scored late
in the 2nd half, of a game with 2
teams who didn't appear to have the fire power to hit the net.
In an attempt to solve that problem, I looked at waiting until Half Time for
games that were still 0-0 to get shorter Lay odds, and stepping in to trade only
1-0 , 0-1 and Over 1.5 Goals during the 2nd half, but that still proved to be
very risky if the first goal was scored late in the game.
An answer to that could be
finding 2 teams that are likely to score goals, but there are no guarantees
there, especially if the game is still goalless at Half Time.
The acid test of any Betfair trading strategy is
to put your spreadsheet where your mouth is.
I traded 2 games and managed to hit a single late goal in both games, the 2nd
one being at 84 minutes, which gave me virtually no chance to exit the market
properly.
It's back to the drawing board for this Under and Over 2.5 Goals strategy.
It may be best to stick to Hedging the odds movements by betting high and laying
low ...... boring and not without similar risks.
Good luck with your trading,
Howard |
9th Jan 2009. Unders and Overs 2.5
Goals strategy ......... fine tuning.
I sorted something out to greatly reduce losses on games in which the first goal
is scored well into the 2nd half.
These games could result in a loss.
A benefit of solving this problem is that the break even odds will now be much
bigger, and profits should be bigger.
All sounds too good to be true.
I will be putting my money where my spreadsheet is this
weekend, trading this Under / Over 2.5 Goals
strategy using my Betfair account, for small stakes.
Good luck with your trading,
Howard |
6th Jan 2009. Unders and Overs
with insurance.
It sometimes pays to think the opposite of what we would normally do, so instead
of betting on 0-0 in the Correct Score market of a Betfair Football Match to insure against a game ending
0-0,
maybe can we Lay to achieve the same insurance.
Example.
An equivalent market for the Under 2.5 Goals market, are these scores in the
Correct Score market :-
0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0.
If we Lay all those scores it
is the same as Laying Under 2.5 goals.
If we Lay all those scores except 0-0, we have 5 successful lays whilst the
score remains 0-0.
Whilst the score remains 0-0, we win the total £££ of our Lays.If a goal is scored :-
If we can Lay both Under 2.5 Goals and Over 2.5 Goals to more than a 100% book,
we can make a guaranteed profit.
We could do that by laying one of them, waiting for some time to pass in the
game, and then laying the other.
Alternatively, we could Hedge by trading one of them by betting high and laying
low.
In both cases, profits would
be small in relation to the length of time we would need to risk our money in
the market whilst waiting for the odds to change.
A better way is to trade in anticipation of a
goal being scored.
If we can Lay the score lines shown above
without having to include 0-0, and then Lay Over 2.5 Goals after a goal is
scored, we could have a winning strategy with built in
insurance against a 0-0 score line.
Normally, with one of the Lay odds missing it would be impossible to Lay the
rest of the market to profit, but after a goal is scored, the odds of the
over and under markets can change dramatically.
So, this is the strategy that I looked at and
paper traded for a few games :-
- In the Correct Score market, Lay
0-1, 0-2, 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0.
We have Layed Under 2.5 goals, but without 0-0.
Whilst the score remains 0-0, we clean up with 5 successful lays.
- If no goals are scored, Lay 0-0 late in the
game plus Over 2.5 Goals for an Over Round book.
- If a goal or goals are scored, Lay Over 2.5
Goals.
At this point we have
Layed an Over Round
book using both the Correct Scores of Under 2.5 Goals and the Over 2.5 Goals
of the Under / Over 2.5 Goals market.
We have Layed the total Under / Over 2.5 Goals market, without Laying the
0-0 score.
- An advantage of this strategy is that if
goals are scored early in the game, we may be able to either Lay to guaranteed profit,
or sit tight and wait for a 2nd and 3rd goal.
At any score with Zero or 3 goals or more, all our 5 Lays are successful
.............
We clean up with the total £££ of our Lays.
- A disadvantage is a low scoring game with
the first goal scored in the 2nd half of the game.
Under those conditions, the market may decide that there will not be more
than 2 goals, so the odds of Over 2.5 Goals will not shorten enough for us
to Dutch to profit.
If that is the case, it may be best to take the hit, and trade out to an all
red screen.
There will always be other profitable matches to trade.
Good luck with your trading,
Howard |
16th Dec 2009. Equivalent
markets, Insurance Bets, and
Under / Over 1.5 Goals, and
Under / Over 2.5 Goals markets
When we use Betfair football markets, there are always markets that have to have
similar odds, otherwise one market could be layed whilst another is bet to Hedge
for guaranteed profit.
If 2 equivalent markets had differing odds, those odds would be snapped up by
Bots (trading robots), until the odds equalized so that no profit would be
available from a Hedge of betting one market, and laying the equivalent odds of
the 2nd market.These are examples of
equivalent markets, but there will be plenty of others if you can think of them
:-
- The Betfair Next Goal = No Goal odds will
always be very close to the current score of the Correct Score market.
If you Bet on Next Goal = No Goal, you are betting that there will not be
another goal.
In the Correct Score market, you should be able to bet on the current score
and get very similar odds, since you would be betting that the current score
will continue to the end of the game.
For example, whilst the score is 0-0, if you bet that there will be No Goal
in the Next Goal market, you are betting that the score will remain at 0-0.
If you bet the 0-0 score line, you would be betting on exactly the same
thing.
If you Lay Next Goal = No Goal, you are saying there will be another goal,
so you could Lay 0-0 or whatever the current score is for the same odds, or
very close, since by laying 0-0, you would be betting that the score would
not remain at 0-0.
Whilst the game stands at any other score, such as 1-0, 2-0, 3-1, etc., you
would be betting that the score would remain the same, with no further
goals.
If you lay the current score, you are saying that there will be another
goal.
So bet in one market and lay in the other, and you cover all eventualities -
goal or no goal.
- In the Betfair Under / Over 1.5 goals
market, at a score of 0-0, the equivalent market is the combined correct
scores of 0-0, 1-0, plus 0-1.
After a goal is scored, the Under 1.5 Goals market must then equal the
current score of 1-0, or 0-1.
At this point, we have 3 markets that must have very similar odds ------
Next Goal = No Goal, the current score in the Correct Score market, and the
Under 1.5 goals market.
If any one of those markets gets out of step with the others, there is a
Hedging opportunity.
The 0-0 score line is used in some strategies as
an insurance bet to cover games where no goals are scored.
If we Lay the Draw in the Match Odds market and intend to Bet the draw after a
goal is scored to Hedge to guaranteed profit, we can use the 0-0 score line in
the Correct Score market to cover our initial Lay.
Suppose the 0-0 bet odds are 11.0.
We can bet £2 (win £20) and Lay the Draw in the Match Odds market for £20 worth
of liabilities.
Whilst there are no goals, we win £20 form our bet on 0-0, but we have
liabilities of £20 on our lay.
Our only cost is commission on our winning £2 bet. Other than that, we
break even.
Once a goal is scored, we have a losing £2 bet on
0-0, but we may be able to Hedge to profit by betting the Draw in the Match Odds
market, and make enough profit to cover our £2 loss and show a profit on the
trade as a whole.
This is a well known insurance bet method.
This strategy can also be employed to insure against a 0-0 game if Dutching all
3 outcomes of the Match Odds market.
Problems arise if the outsider of the 2 teams
scores first, or if the first goal is scored very early in the game, or if 2
quick goals take the score to 1-1.
Under those circumstances, the odds of the Draw would probably not lengthen
sufficiently for a successful Hedge.
I have developed a Dutching strategy to deal with these scenarios, which is
especially effective if the outsider of the 2 teams scores first.
I now sell
"Hedge The Draw"
and
"Dutch All 3 Outcomes" spreadsheet packages, which use these insurance and
exit strategies.
Both spreadsheet packages have very similar layouts.
Just recently, I have been looking at the Under /
Over 1.5 Goals, and Under /
Over 2.5 Goals markets in relation to time passing in the game, goals being
scored, and insurance bets.
I don't have a strategy for trading these markets with insurance bets and exit
strategies yet, but I'm working on it.
Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
10th Dec 2008. Under and Over,
and other markets.
There are only 2 ways of trading - Dutching and Hedging.
If you can come up with another staking method, you are on your way to your
first £££ million.Last week, I thought I
was onto something - not a different way of staking, but a way of staking that I
hadn't thought of before.
A new way of looking at staking of
football matches.
We know that whilst no goals are being scored, some odds shorten whilst others
lengthen.
After a goal is scored, those rolls may be reversed, with some odds lengthening,
whilst others shorten.
Suppose we take 2 markets - Lay a rising market, and Bet a shortening market
with the intention of Hedging to profit by betting the first market at higher
odds, and laying the 2nd market at lower odds.
That will be a definite winner whilst there are no goals.
Once a goal is scored, the odds are likely to
change dramatically and if we have not exited the market, the odds available may
give us an all red screen.
Whilst no goals are being scored, Football Match odds are very predictable, but
exactly when goals will be scored is anybody's guess.
So, what if we Hedge 2 markets - one that
shows a profit whilst no goals are scored, and one that shows a profit only
after a goal is scored.
Suppose that whilst there are no goals, a hedge profit of the first market is
bigger that the loss on the 2nd market, BUT, after a goal, a Hedge profit of the
2nd market is bigger than the loss on the first market.
Under such conditions, we could hedge to profit after a period of time whilst
there are no goals,
OR we could exit the market to profit after a goal is scored.
I have been watching the odds of Match Odds
markets, Correct Score, Under and Over, and Next Goal markets of a few matches
during the last 2 or 3 weeks, and have come pretty close to covering these scenarios,
but so far, there has been the dreaded big loss on just the occasional game
where the odds have not been straightforward.
The difficulty is, making the staking work :-
- If a strongly fancied team scores first.
- If the outsider scores first against a
strongly fancied team.
- If either of 2 closely matched teams score
first.
So far, it's early days for my theory of trading
2 markets in this way to show a profit whilst the score is 0-0, 1-0 or
0-1, but it can be done under quite a lot of circumstances.
The answer may be to select games depending on the odds available, or where we
think there may be no goals scored in the first 10 - 20 minutes.
"Where we think" introduces an element of judgement, and you can bet your life
that your judgement will be wrong the first time you put your money where your
spreadsheet is.
So far, it's back to the drawing board on this one.
Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
3rd
Dec 2008 Free bets seminar.
The Oddsmatcher demo for trading Bookies Free Bets on Monday night lasted just over an hour.
As a very experienced Free Bets Tart, there was nothing new for me.
I didn't realize that the Oddsmatcher web page only
brings up bookies football odds for a comparison with exchange odds.
I usually target horse races if possible when I'm trading free bets.
I've never seen a strong market move on a football team before the kick off, but
I've seen plenty of steamers in horse races.
If you are looking to bet high and lay low to get the best out of your Free Bet trades,
you would be well advised to look at markets other than football.
Oddsmatcher allows you to input your own odds, so you could use the calculator
for any market.
These are other points that I make clear with
my
Free Bets trading spreadsheet package :-
- Always bet first with the bookie.
Bookie web pages don't refresh very often, so the odds you see, are not
always the odds on offer.
If you can't get the odds you want, keep looking in other races or events.
- If the free bet stake IS returned with
winnings, it's best to trade short prices.
If the free bet stake is
NOT returned with winnings, it's best to trade BIG prices.
Test drive a few bets on Oddsmatcher to see this in action.
- You can save commission by trading more than
one bookie in the same race.
If you happen to hit a winner, you will have liabilities on Betfair, with
zero commission to pay.
I don't think the Oddsmatcher calculator can be
used for offers such as the BetChronicle offer.
BetChronicle offer to double your winnings if you hit a winner whilst trading
your deposit.
To trade this offer, you need to trade your deposit, and trade as if you have a free bet at
the same time, with the free bet stake NOT returned with winnings.
You may be able to muck about to get your staking right, but it's best to make your whole trade with a
single bet and lay.
Also, I have traded other offers where only a percentage of the winnings is
awarded if you hit a winner.
Again, this can be traded with just one bet and one lay, using my spreadsheet.
Whenever you are trading on Betfair using an
on-screen calculator to show the staking, it is best if a range of odds are
displayed, otherwise you have to continually overtype the odds to keep pace with
changing odds on Betfair.
My spreadsheets show a range of 16 odds increments, the stakes required, and the
profit or loss from your transaction, so once you have input some odds, you
rarely need to overtype anything.
Oddsmatcher is a step in the right direction for
punters, with improvements in the pipeline.
Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
1st Dec 2008 Free
bets seminar. Football under and over research.
Over the weekend, I enrolled for a free webinar covering trading of bookies free
bets.
The free demo is tonight 7pm till 8pm with an audio link.
I've signed up for this to see what the opposition has to offer.
I have an excellent spreadsheet package for trading
bookies free bet offers, so it will be interesting to see how this demo compares
to what I have on offer.
The maths of trading free bets are simple enough, but offers vary from bookie to
bookie, so you need to alter your staking according to the offer.
My spreadsheet package is the one I have used very
extensively and covers different types
of bookie offers :-
-
Free money such as
the Betfair offer.
-
Bet a deposit, free
bet stake IS returned with winnings.
-
Bet a deposit, free
bet stake is NOT returned with winnings.
-
Bet a deposit, get a
percentage free bet, with free bet stake not returned with
winnings
-
Bet a deposit, get
another free bet on the same selection, with free bet stake not
returned with winnings.
Trading free bets is
the only mathematical certainty that I know of in the gambling
world.
Get your stakes right, and you cannot lose.
The webinar is connected with the
Oddsmatcher free on-line calculator.
I've enrolled on tonight's webinar to see if the Oddsmatcher people trade their
free bets any differently to everyone else.
I'm always on the lookout for new ideas.
I'll keep you posted.
============================================
I watched the odds of 6 premiership
football matches over the week end, concentrating on the Over and Under
markets, in relation to the Correct Score market.
Once you collect a few stats and start to analyse them, it's amazing
where you get diverted to.
I began to look into the Next Goal market as well, but packed that in
once I noticed a very promising looking Hedging and Dutching opportunity
elsewhere.
I already had a spreadsheet knocked up for combining Dutching with a
Hedge, so I tested the odds on it and things are looking good.
This spreadsheet allows me to Bet or Lay several selections to equal
profit, and then Bet Or Lay a single selection to Hedge and equalize the
trade as a whole.
For instance, you could Bet all the possible outcomes in one market, and
then Lay a single outcome in an equivalent market to hedge to profit.
In football matches of course, all markets are affected by 2 factors -
time passing in the game, and goals being scored.
Football odds are very predictable in relation to time, but when goals
will be scored is anybody's guess.
Next, I need to look at the liquidity of the markets concerned, and
watch the odds of more matches to see how often trades are likely to go
into the red.
While I'm doing that, I'll be thinking about an exit strategy for when
things go wrong.
Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
27th Nov 2008. Breach of
copyright. Unders and Overs
Check your maths.
Other than reading the Betfair Forum occasionally, I haven't
been involved in anything to do with trading for quite a
while.
I've been building Holiday Cottage web sites for 2 customers
and getting them up and running with traffic.
This past week, I've been looking around for ideas for new
trading strategies, and came across 2 blokes who have
pinched my ideas for their own web sites ..... Cheek, but
quite flattering.
One chap copied exactly, my
Hedge 1-1 strategy from my web site into his blog, despite
my copyright message on the bottom of all my web pages :-
Copyright © 2007
All rights reserved.
To his credit, he does
recommend searching on Google for Betfair Strategy or
something similar, to find my web site.
I sent him an e-mail with a link, but nothing has come of it
so far.
On the other site, I was able to post a comment.
My posting appeared ok, but predictably was removed after a
couple of days.
On that same web site, a bloke left a comment stating that
he'd bought a spreadsheet from one of my web sites, but received
nothing.
I replied to that posting.
As far as I am aware, everyone who buys a spreadsheet from
me gets their spreadsheet.
After purchase, the PayPal system should route my customer
to a download web page.
My download web pages have a link for downloading the
spreadsheet required.
If a customer has
difficulties, they usually e-mail me and I send them their
spreadsheet and quite often include an additional
spreadsheet to compensate for any frustration.
All my
spreadsheets contain instructions, but most download web
pages also contain additional information.
=====================================================
Trading Unders and Overs in
the football markets seems quite popular at present, with
the 2.5 Goals market apparently having the best liquidity.
I've been watching a few games this week and recording the
odds movements of a few related markets.
We could hedge the odds in the Under 2.5 Goals market by
betting before the kick off and laying after a short period
of time has passed in the game.
The risk is that an early goal would probably put us in the
red, so I am looking at placing insurance bets to ease the
pain, or even as an alternative method of trading.
We could also lay Over 2.5 goals and then bet after time has
passed.
An alternative to Hedging of
course is Dutching.
If we bet both under and over 2.5 goals, we cover all
possible outcomes.
We could bet Under before the kick off, wait a short time,
and bet Over 2.5 goals as the odds lengthen.
Alternatively, we could Lay Over 2.5 goals, wait, and then
Lay Under 2.5 goals.
The profit involved whether
we Hedge or Dutch should be roughly the same for the same
liabilities.
So, ..... there are 4 possible trades in these markets
which I could cover, probably with 2 spreadsheets.
I need to kick a few ideas
about, build a spreadsheet of 3, and test them live on Betfair.
=================================================
If ever you come up with a
strategy that looks like a real winner, always check your
maths.
Then double check your maths.
I've lost count of the times I've found an absolute nailed
on certainty of a strategy, and been brought back down to
earth by a wrong calculation or having looked at lay odds
when I should have been looking at bet odds.
The ultimate test of course, is when you put your money
where your spreadsheet is.
Good luck with your trading,
Howard. |
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H. Hutchinson 2009 All rights reserved
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