Archive of activity to December 2009

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Dec 30th 2009.   Betfair football.  First 20 minutes Correct Score strategy.
Occasionally, a spreadsheet customer will swap ideas with me, and quite often I give a free spreadsheet or 2 in exchange.
A spreadsheet customer shared his ideas with me yesterday and asked if I could add anything to improve his trades.

After giving his ideas a bit of thought, I came up with a pretty safe way of trading the first 20 minutes of football match.
The Betfair football strategy that I came up with wasn't really what he was looking for in the first place, but at least it is something new for both of us.
I developed a strategy for the Betfair Correct Score market.
The games to trade are those in which the 2 teams are evenly matched in Match Odds.
This strategy is a simple bet and lay of 2 scores in Betfair's Correct Score market.
Bet the 2 scores before the Kick Off.
If there is no goal in the first 20 minutes we can lay both scores to break even or thereabouts.
If a goal goes in, a lay produces a profit in most of the selected games.
Profits are small, but hopefully will outweigh any losses in the long term.
I'll be trading this First 20 Minutes strategy on paper for a while to see if it pays over a number of games.

While I'm doing that, I'll be working on my customer's basic strategy.
He pointed out a massive change in odds which I must admit I hadn't taken much notice of before.
I am hoping to use this change in odds maybe as an insurance hedge to cover a separate main bet in another Betfair football market.
Betfair football markets are always very tight, so this may be successful, maybe not.
I'll keep you informed of any further developments.
As always, good luck with your trading.  I hope you have a very prosperous 2010,
Howard.

Dec 10th 2009.  Match Odds refunds.
Match odds refunds may be worded so that if the game ends in a draw, there is no refund :-

Place a bet (1X2, no handicap, one coupon) of exactly 12 on a Champions League match, with odds of 2.0 or higher, and if your team loses, we'll refund 6.
If the match ends in a draw, there will be no refund.

OR this offer referred to a double on 2 matches, which isn't very clear from the wording :-

Place a bet (1X2, no handicap, one coupon) of exactly 21 on two or more Champions League matches, with odds of 2.0 or higher, and if you win you are entitled to a 100% deposit bonus up to 30.

I've built a spreadsheet to trade these offers.
The aim of the strategy is to bet one of the teams with the bookie but profit whatever the result.
I use the potential refund if our chosen team lose to eliminate the loss if the game ends in a draw, and also show a profit if either of the teams win.
These are the 3 possible outcomes :-

  • We hit the winner and there is no refund.
  • The game ends in a draw with no refund.
  • The team that we have not bet on wins so there is a refund.

I have used a Dutching strategy for some of the staking, but the odds on offer at Bet24 were so poor this week that there was no guaranteed profit on all 3 outcomes.
The difference in bookie bet odds on Bet24 and Betfair lay odds was enormous.
Bet24 may be making a very generouis off er with their refunds, but the odds they are offering may well be way out of line when compared with other bookmaker's odds.
This is another that one is still on the drawing board.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

Dec 6th 2009.  Red Card refunds.
Bookie Red Card Refund offers are usually worded something like this :-
"Place a bet on our Match Prices market on any Premier League game this weekend, and if there is a red card shown we'll refund all bets on that game!"
I tested that particular offer on the Premiership Games this weekend, Dec 5th and 6th, but unfortunately I found that the odds didn't allow for a decent profit.
The refund is usually in the form of a free bet with the free bet stake not returned with any winnings
A small profit on the trade would disappear when the free bet is traded afterwards, so I'm afraid it's back to the drawing board once again.

This is the strategy that I was using :-
Bet in the bookies chosen market and lay the same selection on Betfair  - - - - - for a loss due to the difference in the odds.
In Befair's Sending Off market, Lay Red card = Yes.
Alternatively, Bet Red card = No.
In many games, either of those 2 trades will show a profit on 3 of the possible 4 outcomes, dependant on the odds available.
These are the 4 possible outcomes :-

  • Our bookie bet loses and there is no red card.
  • Our bookie bet wins and there is no red card.
  • Our bookie bet loses and there is a red card.
  • Our bookie bet wins and there is a red card.

Choose the right games, and we would expect a profit from all results except the last one - - - - our bet wins and there is a red card.
For best results, we need to hit a loser with the bookie, then if there is a red card or not makes little difference to our trade.
If we hit a loser with the bookie, we either have a successful lay of Red Card = Yes or a refund if a red card is shown.
OR we have a winning Bet of Red Card = No, or a refund if a red card is shown.
We would have a successful Lay or Winning Bet, or a refund that would cover our Lay or Bet if there was a red card.
Unfortunately, in the games that I paper traded, the most favourable odds to trade for the bookie bet and Betfair lay were usually the most strongly fancied of the 2 teams, which wouldn't really be the best way to start these trades.
I always paper trade new strategies, and in this case, it has shown that this isn't worth pursuing any further.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

Dec 1st 2009.  "The system's working well, please send more money".  Minus 338 & Minus 147.
Today, I played roulette on 2 of the 3 casinos listed below in my previous post, using the free cash available.
The Pheonician Casino didn't offer any free cash, just a bonus on top of a deposit, so I gave that one a miss.

Unlike the free play on Jackpot Joy, I never even got my nose in front with these 2 casinos.
The first problem I encountered was a max stake limit of 32, whereas the Jackpot Joy limit was 50.
However, I am sure that didn't make too much difference to the outcome in both casinos.
I used a 5 unit stake on Golden Tiger and quickly found that I couldn't use my staking plan as I would have liked due to the 32 limit.
On Casino Action, I dropped my unit stake to 1 to make my staking plan work better, but the result was the same - a BIG loss.
Also, I changed my strategy for Casino Action.

As you know, even money chances such as Red & Black, Odd & Even, and Top half of the numbers & Bottom Half don't usually come along alternately, but at some point come in bunches.
Using a 5 unit stake on Golden Tiger, I staked to profit from both Red & Black coming in bunches, not just one of them.
The 32 limit soon put my staking plan into trouble as I soon hit the maximum stake of 32 and couldn't increase and decrease above 32.
On the 2nd casino, Casino Action, I dropped my unit stake to 1 and decided to play 2 staking plans at once, again looking for things coming along in bunches rather than alternately.
I hoped that one would make a profit that would help to get me over the other losing, but before I started I knew that both could lose at the same time.
I played Red & Black, plus Odd & Even numbers using 2 separate staking plans at the same time.
Odd and even won for me, showing a profit 4 times in 30 spins, but Red & Black only showed a profit once in those 30 spins and put me well into the red despite my winnings on Odd & Even.
A third tactic that I tried on the first casino, was to stake both Black & Red to win, but only stake the difference between the 2 separate staking plans.
Doing that reduces the stakes, but the problem with staking 2 opposing outcomes is that in the long term, we need Black & Red to come up a pretty even number of times.
If one dominates, the staking plan will produce a loss.
You guessed it.  That didn't work either.
Red won 10 times for me in 21 spins, whilst black only won once.
There were 15 Reds, 6 Blacks and no Green in 21 spins.
21 spins is of course a very small number of spins, but the 32 stake limit was enough to kill off my staking plan.

Strangely, all of these strategies worked in the Free Play area of Jackpot Joy, not just in one session of play, but every time that I tried them in several sessions.
As described in my previous post, I played several sessions in the Jackpot Joy free play area, and came out winning every time, quite spectacularly to start with before I started experimenting with different strategies.
I tried all these strategies more than once in there.
I wouldn't like to suggest that anything today wasn't quite as it should have been, but it does make you think.

I may just have suffered from a combination of the 32 stake limit, and poor play on my part.
The whole exercise cost nothing but some of my time.
It was very entertaining not just today, but over about a week of testing as well, and has certainly taught me never to even think about playing roulette for my own cash.
Nothing has changed on that front for me, although I did think that I was onto something when I thought I had figured out how to play to take advantage of the same colour or numbers coming in bunches.
After all, it worked every time in Jackpot Joy and won me over 500 credits in 58 minutes at one point, staking for bunches
of Red & Black rather than an even number of each..
Below is another screenshot showing my current Free Play balance on Jackpot Joy.  25880 minus the previous total 25836 = 44 profit since my previous post.
I wonder what would happen if I played using my own money in there ?

It's not back to the roulette drawing board, but it is back to the trading drawing board.
The main thing is that I'm no worse off today than I was yesterday.
Good luck with your trading, and make sure you keep well clear of roulette.  Free Play might be ok, but never play with Real Money,
Howard.

Nov 13th 2009.   A successful Roulette staking plan ?

I've been doing a small amount of casino scalping over the last few weeks that mainly involved playing Black Jack.
Rummaging around just a few casino web sites and opening an account with 2 or 3 has generated some casino junk e-mails.
3 of those so far are offering very large amounts of cash to play with for an hour, with any profit up to maybe 100 being available to withdraw afterwards.
If I make a loss it is regarded as Free Play and costs nothing.
This has rekindled my interest in roulette, so I have shelved the development of  bookies refund offers.

I've known for a very long time how to make a profit from roulette (in theory), but I've never before had the opportunity to use a big enough bank to give it a try.
Now that these casinos are offering very large free banks, I have decided to go ahead and see what happens.
I can play for an hour, and if I lose it costs me nothing, but if I win, I get to keep up to 100 of any profit I show.
There is a minimum requirement of 20 spins which is no problem at all.

In preparation, I have been playing in the Free Play section of the Jackpot Joy web site.
There is a maximum stake in there of 50 on the roulette table.
I've been staking using a basic 5 stake and building up my speed to maximise my 1 hour of free trading.
If things go according to plan, I don't expect to have to play for an hour to make the 100 profit.
So far, I've played 4 different sessions on Jackpot Joy and won every time.
My best performance was a profit of 525 in 2 consecutive sessions with a combined time of 58 minutes.
A longer session today took quite a bit more time for a profit of 165.
You might not believe those figures, but I can assure you that they are true.
Below is a screenshot of my Free Play credit in the roulette area of JackPot Joy.

If you open an account with Jackpot Joy and go to your Free Play area, you will see what the starting amount is.
I didn't make a note of my starting credits, but I know they were 25050 on Nov 25th 4 days ago.
That's a profit of 786 in 4 days, and I haven't played hours and hours of roulette to make that gain.

Starting this week I'll be playing on these web sites that offer big banks to new players :-
Pheonician Casino,  Golden Tiger casino,  and Casino Action.
I'm pretty sure that 2 of those are under the same ownership or connected in some way.
No doubt there will be other casinos with similar offers, and there are of course lots of casinos to choose from.
I haven't even started looking yet.
Win or lose, I'll let you know on here how I get on.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

Nov 13th 2009.   Testing of bookie Conditional Refund spreadsheet.
I now have a spreadsheet for trading bookies Conditional Refund offers.
I'll be trawling though some bookies over the weekend looking for refund offers that cover these 3 conditions :-
  • Our bet wins so there is no refund.
  • Our bet loses, so there is a refund. (The Bookie's named conditions happened).
  • Our bet loses but there is no refund because the Bookie's named conditions didn't happen.

My spreadsheet produces guaranteed winnings for all 3 of those scenarios, but my method doesn't produce the same profit for all 3.
The main thing is that there is no loss if my reasoning is correct.
If the bookies named conditions happen, winnings are very good from the refund.
There is an ok profit from a second outcome, and a very small profit on the third.
These Refund offers are mainly available at weekends or maybe mid-week on big sporting events, so testing could take some time in order to hit all 3 conditions several times to test the calculations with my cash.
Also, a problem will be my interpretation of the bookie's wording of their offer.
I have worked to a pretty standard offer for my calculations, not the Red Card example used below, so if I see that particular offer with a bookie, that is the offer that I will trade.
Bookies who had various football Refund offers 2 weeks ago were SportingBet, PartyBets, BetWay, BetChronice and BGBet.
There may have been others.
BoyleSport also had a horse racing refund on 2nd placed horses.
That type of horse racing offer is quite common but I haven't had a serious look at those yet.
I looked at Forecast markets on Betfair in relation to these some time ago, but only briefly.
Another interesting offer is bookies who offer to pay out on 5 placed horses in big races.
There might be something there as a lay in a Betfair place market would probably only show liabilities on 4 places.
No doubt there will be losses due to the odds differences between the bookie and Betfair, but if we don't look at these offers, we won't find anything.
Taking a look and trying to work something out doesn't cost anything.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

Nov 7th 2009.   Bookie refunds spreadsheets.
The offer described in my Oct 31st post was actually worded so that the bookie refund only applied to betting on a team and if the team lost, then they would give a refund.
I bet on a team and layed it on Betfair but the game ended in a draw, so I didn't get a refund on my losing bet with the bookie.
Normally, that would cost a very small amount, but I had staked to win whatever the result - - providing there was a definite refund.
Not reading the offer correctly cost me 5.11 as I traded my 12 deposit for a win of 7.25 (net 6.89) whatever the result, provided there was a refund on my losing bet.
My bet did lose, but my team didn't lose - they Drew, so there was no bookie refund.
2 good things have come out of this.
In future I will read the wording of bookie refund offers more carefully before diving in, and I now have a spreadsheet to trade refund offers.
After we have traded our initial "Sign Up" free bet with our bookie, there are 2 different kinds of free bet offer that the bookie may offer from time to time :-
A "Definite" refund (a No-Lose offer which is quite rare) which only has 2 possible outcomes :-
  • Our bet wins so there is no refund.
  • Our bet loses, so there is a refund.

An example might be that we place a bet in the bookie's 1 X 2 football market and if our bet loses, the bookie will give us a refund.
If we simply place a bet in this market and hope that our selection wins, we would either win or break even.
This spreadsheet guarantees winnings whatever the outcome.

A "Conditional" refund (which is very common) has 3 possible outcomes :-
  • Our bet wins so there is no refund.
  • Our bet loses, so there is a refund. (The Bookie's named conditions happened).
  • Our bet loses but there is no refund because the Bookie's named conditions didn't happen.

An example might be that if a Red Card is shown at anytime (a player is sent off) in the game, the bookie will refund all losing Correct Score bets.
If we simply place a bet in the Correct Score market and hope that our selection wins, we would either win, break even, or make a loss if, In this example, no-one was sent off and we didn't hit the Correct Score.

I have built a spreadsheet for both types of refund offer.
The Definite refund sheet shows guaranteed winnings whatever the outcome of our event.
So far, my Conditional refund spreadsheet shows guaranteed winnings on 2 of the outcomes, but a loss on the third.
I'll have to give this bit a more thought.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

Oct 31st 2009.  Bookie refunds on 0-0 scores, Anytime goal scorers etc.
Amazingly, I received an e-mail today from a bookie offering me a refund if I bet 12 in their Match Odds market of a football match.
If I hit a loser, they'd refund my 12.
This was of course a no-lose 12 bet if I simply placed the bet, but I took the opportunity to test whether I could guarantee a profit whether I hit a winner or a loser with my 12 bet.
I placed my bet and then came up with a solution which won me just over 7 whether I hit the winning team or not.
This was the offer :- "
Place a single bet of exactly 12 (1x2, no handicap, not live) on the winner, and if your team loses, then we will refund your stake".
My bet lost, so providing I get the 12 refund, I should be 7 better off, rather than just getting my money back and breaking even.

I had a look at quite a few other bookies and there were several different refunds available.
I'll be looking at those during the next week or two.
Who knows ?  There might be some more free cash available there if I can apply a similar strategy to those offers as well..
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

 
Oct 29th 2009.   Bookie refunds on 0-0 scores, Anytime goal scorers etc.
Quite a long time ago, I built a spreadsheet for trading bookies refunds.
You must have seen offers worded something like this :-
  • "Place a bet on the Correct Score and if the game ends 0-0 we will refund all losing bets in this market"
  • OR  "If Johnny Hotshot scores at any time, we'll refund all losing bets in our First Goal scorer market".

There is some free cash here providing the events happen that the bookie describes, but unless these things happen, we can't get our hands on it.
To make these a trading proposition, we need to bet with the bookie of course, but then we need to stake as if these things will happen in our game.
If we bet with the bookie and lay the same selection on Betfair for an equal profit or loss, we will make a small loss due to the poor odds that bookies always offer in football markets.
That gets us into a trading position.
We then use that opening trade plus the free bet offer to complete the whole trade for guaranteed winnings - - - if we can work something out so that it doesn't matter whether the game ends 0-0 or if Johnny Hotshot doesn't even get a kick of the ball.

We need to make enough guaranteed winnings to recover that loss from our initial bet and lay and then show a profit on top of that.
The spreadsheet I built some time ago achieves that, but profits are hardly worth the effort, and there are losses in some games.
However, I came across an idea yesterday that may help to get around those problems and make this a worthwhile trade.
I'll be rummaging around some bookie web sites this weekend looking to see what is on offer, and then working on this for a while.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

Oct 18th 2009.  Back to the drawing board.
I must apologise for boring you with my trading experiences in the post below.
I imagine that you visit my blog maybe looking for an idea or two, not to be bored to death reading about my trades.
I won't let it happen again.

Good luck with your trading, Howard.

Oct 14th 2009.  Arbitrage (Arbs), Bingo and Roulette.
I looked back through a few of my records of the odds in past football matches and found that the staking method I used for my Under 1.5 Goals strategy (described in a previous post below) couldn't be applied to the Under 2.5 Goals market.
I haven't had any new ideas for strategies just recently, so I thought I'd do a bit of trading.
I decided to test drive the trading tools available on the new website that I have become involved with to see what would happen if I traded this month's recommendations.
These recommendations are aimed at making enough profit to cover the monthly membership fee.

First up was a video demo showing how to make a risk free 15 from a 5 deposit on a game of Bingo.
Spot on that was, so 15 up straight away.
Next a video on Roulette (which I must admit was from the previous month's recommendations) showed how to make a risk free 19 playing just 6 spins in an on-line casino.
Spot on again.  Profit now 34.
After that, a recommendation of a free bet with a new bookie generated a risk free 17.88, which was a bit disappointing as I hit a winner and had to make an extra trade before I could make my withdrawal.  That reduced my profit.
Profit now 51.88.   Way above the monthly membership fee already.
These excellent videos are NOT removed, as others are added, in fact additional videos are added to existing ones showing updates of the strategies to cover changes that casinos and bookies make.
In this way, everything from past months is still available for new members who sign up.  Wonderful stuff !

Even though I am a contributor to this web site (I supply a bunch of spreadsheets free for members, plus other stuff), I never tire of rummaging around this new web site.
There is plenty of new content added every month, mostly with video demos to make things absolutely clear.
In addition to that, everyone is very helpful - contributors and members alike.
This month there was a new video (plus a calculator) describing how to tackle Arbitrage, and what the problems can be - what to watch out for.
After watching the video, I decided to give Arbing a go for small stakes to see what happened, but before doing that, I went into the Live Chat Room to ask the regular Arbers where I should start.
They recommended 3 bookies in particular, but I decided to use just 2 of them, and deposited 20 with each of them.
I used the members "ArbFinder" tool to find suitable trades.
Profit from my 4 x 10 Arbs was 2.83. . . . a respectable 7.07% profit on my turnover.
Profit now 54.71.

Today, I've started to use another tool on there that is designed for trading bookies free bets.
This has of course become a very well known way of trading for good profits with zero risk.
I sell a spreadsheet for these trades, but decided to use the on-line tool in the members area as if finds very closely matched odds with obscure bookmakers, so I could easily choose a bookie with a good offer with bet odds very close to Betfair lay odds before I signed up with the bookie to trade my deposit.
I will be getting a free 30 bet tomorrow, so trading that out should put me well on my way to my monthly profit target of 100 that I have set myself, using only the resources of this new web site.
For a description of this website that is a community for serious Betfair traders, follow this link.
When you get there, make sure you "Mouse Over" the picture on there and them click the arrow to the left in order to view the demo video of the members area of the new site.
It's well worth a look, and by the look of my few trades, well worth signing up as well.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

Oct 5th 2009.   Under 2.5 Goals strategy.
I've been trading my Under 1.5 Goals with insurance strategy with some success.
In yesterday's game between West Ham and Fulham, the first goal went in at 16 minutes but I was able to trade out with a small profit shortly afterwards.
The Under 1.5 Goals odds before the kick off will have been around the Bet 4.3, Lay 4.32 mark.
After the goal, the 1-0 odds were Bet 6.8, Lay 8.0, and settled down to Bet 6.0, Lay 6.2 at 27 minutes.
Those 1-0 odds in Correct Score would have been pretty much the same as the Under 1.5 Goals odds with the score at 1-0, as those would be equivalent markets after the goal.
If we had bet Under 1.5 Goals before the Kick Off at odds of 4.3 and looked to lay Under 1.5 Goals at 6.2 after the first goal, it would have been impossible to exit the trade without an all red screen until sometime after Half Time, when the odds fell below 4.3.
My Under 1.5 Goals method avoided that problem.
I was able to trade out at 1-0 odds of 6.6.

I am now looking at applying the same insurance principle to Under 2.5 Goals.
The aim is to exit the market whilst the score remains 0-0, but an insurance stake reduces losses to an acceptable level if an early goal is scored, or 2 quick goals are scored before we trade out.
That insurance can enable us to exit with a profit in most games (depending on our staking) if the first goal doesn't come too early in the game.
A goal towards Half Time can be good news for this Under 2.5 Goals strategy.
I'll keep you informed of my Under 2.5 Goals progress.
Good luck with your trading, Howard

Sept 22nd 2009.  Under 1.5 Goals strategy uploaded.
After a bit of fine tuning of the instructions today and a bit more trading tonight, I have now put this new strategy onto my web sites.
Follow this link for a description Under 1.5 Goals strategy with insurance.

I lost on the first game I traded tonight after a goal at 6 minutes, but won all the losses back and more, in the 2nd game I traded that had a goal at 29 minutes.

Under 1.5 Goals with insurance, is best suited to games in which the 2 teams are evenly matched in Betfair's Match Odds market.
Good luck with your trading, Howard..

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