Comparison of different Progressive LAY staking methods 2013

The progress of 4 LAY staking methods is shown below, using a tipping service for the lays.

Lay to a Percentage Liability of a Profit Target. 

Lay to a Set Liability.

Lay a percentage of a Bank.

Level Stakes.

10 level stakes  

For video demonstrations of Excel spreadsheets suitable for staking these methods, follow
this link to
my Staking Plans web page.

To get some independent lay tips, I subscribed to a daily newsletter ratings service.
Lay recommendations were not given every day, and also there were rules to follow concerning non-runners and going conditions, which eliminated some of the tips.

To make sure that this is was a genuine comparison using genuine odds with no cheating or after-timing, I Layed each of these runners using cash in Betfair.
The method I am used for my lays was Lay to a Percentage L
iability of a Profit Target - - the top staking method shown below.
The odds and stakes shown in the top spreadsheet example are what I placed in Betfair.
The profit or loss shown in that top example is what happened to my Betfair account concerning these lays.


These were my comments during this demonstration :-
The most important part
of this demonstration may not be the profit, but the size of the lay liabilities and %ROI.
Rather than concentrating on the profit shown at the bottom of each spreadsheet, it may be better to compare the lay liabilities in each staking method and the Percentage Return On our Investment, %ROI.
Before starting these lays, I opted for the staking plan that offered the least financial damage after hitting a winner. . . . . . Lay to a Percentage Liability of a Profit Target.

As the tips hit winners and losers the staking differed in each staking plan, so for an accurate assessment of how each method performed, I added a % ROI (Percentage Return On Investment) column to the right of each display.

Percentage Return On Investment . . . .  %ROI = ( Profit so far divided by Total Staked so far ) x 100.
For an equal start for the staking, all 4 methods start with a lay liability of -80 if that first runner had been a winner.
Stakes differred from that point as the 4 staking plans followed their individual staking method.
Once the tips hit a winner at the 4th tip, the %ROI of each staking plan differs.
My Betfair commission rate used below in all 4 staking methods was 5%.

Follow this link for an analysis on my Blog of the comparison below.
See my post dated
24th August 2013,  the day that I stopped laying the tips and ended my laying demonstration.
Note that the next lay on August 26th hit another winner, for 2 consecutive winners, Aug 17th and Aug 26th.
A lucky escape for me there !
 

My websites.

betformulas.co.uk
Formulas and maths of trading

betandlay.co.uk
Football trading

A list of all my spreadsheets lives here :-
betandlay.co.uk/strategies
Strategies for horse racing and football trading

Old startingstalls.co.uk web site
A very accurate analysis of U.K.  horse racing draw advantages.

New Laying web site
Different ways of laying using a bit of imaginative staking.

My Blog.
What I am working on at present.

Lay to a Percentage Liability of a Profit Target.
I am using this staking plan for the
lay stakes that I place in Betfair.  I have placed all the lays shown below.
The lay liability percentage of each lay is set on the top row highlighted in green..  Any winner will cause a loss of that percentage of the amount shown in the Target Winnings column against that runner.
For example :-  Liability of 40% of 200 = -80 for the first runner and 40% of 162 = -64.80 for the 2nd runner, etc.
"Target Winnings" is the profit that we still need to make to reach our last entry of a Profit Target highlighted in purple.
Profit or Loss of lays so far is shown in the  "Total P / L" column.  That is what I have won or lost in Betfair.

 
Stake to % liab of TARGET winnings   >> 40 5.00 <<<  Commission       Reset  
  RON LAYS Odds Win   Stake Lay Profit Total TARGET Target %
Date Details   or Lose Adjust   Liability or Loss P/L Winnings Winnings R O I
11-Jul Donc 2:00  @ 8.6, 4.6 3.00 0   40.00 -80.00 38.00 38.00 200.00   95.00
11-Jul H.Q. 5:00 Avon Breeze 5.90 0   13.22 -64.80 12.56 50.56 162.00   95.00
12-Jul York 4.05 Demora 8.00 0   8.54 -59.77 8.11 58.68 149.44   95.00
12-Jul Ascot 4:15 Al Khan 6.80 1   9.75 -56.53 -56.53 2.15 141.32   3.00
13-Jul Ascot 1:55 Taajub 10.00 0   8.79 -79.14 8.35 10.50 197.85   13.07
13-Jul Chest 4:00 Sir Maximillian 7.20 0   12.23 -75.80 11.61 22.11 189.50   23.90
19-Jul Hay 3:50 Imperial Legend 6.80 0   12.27 -71.15 11.65 33.77 177.89   32.22
19-Jul HQ 7:55 Peace Seeker 7.00 0 -0.69 10.39 -62.35 9.87 43.64 166.23   37.89
02-Aug Thirsk 4:40 Hazza The Jazza 7.20 0   10.09 -62.54 9.58 53.22 156.36   42.49
02-Aug Muss 7:50 Oil Strike 6.00 0   11.74 -58.71 11.15 64.38 146.78   46.99
05-Aug Rip 3:45 Emilio Largo 4.40 0   15.96 -54.25 15.16 79.54 135.62   51.99
06-Aug Catt 3:15 Quality Art 4.40 0   14.17 -48.19 13.46 93.00 120.46   55.64
06-Aug Catt 4:45 Majestic Manannan 6.60 0   7.64 -42.80 7.26 100.26 107.00   57.36
06-Aug Rip 7:40 Singeur 6.20 0   7.67 -39.90 7.29 107.55 99.74   58.94
07-Aug Brign 3:50 Enriching 10.00 0   8.89 -80.00 8.44 115.99 200.00 200.00 60.62
08-Aug Brign 3:50 Edwyn Ralph 3.40 0   31.93 -76.62 30.33 146.32 191.56   65.53
08-Aug Chep 8:00 The Mongoose 6.40 1   11.94 -64.49 -64.49 81.83 161.23   34.79
10-Aug Hay 4:30 Gabriel's Gift 5.50 0   20.06 -90.29 19.06 100.89 225.72   39.52
10-Aug Redc 4:55 Bop It 3.05 0   40.32 -82.66 38.31 139.20 206.66   47.09
17-Aug Ripon 2:50 love Island 18.00 0   3.96 -67.34 3.76 142.96 168.35   47.72
17-Aug Newb 3:50 Glen Moss 5.00 1   16.46 -65.83 -65.83 77.13 164.59   24.41
                77.13 230.42    

Notes.
Win/Lose column.  1 = a winner.  0 = a loser.
6th Aug.  Half way to profit target in Total P/L column of 200, so reset bank for next lay.
Below is a screenshot of my Betfair account, just to prove that I am using cash for these lays.

Lay to a Set Liability
The lay liability of each lay is set on the right highlighted in purple.  Any winner will cause a loss of that amount.
Profit or Loss of lays so far is shown in the  "Total P / L" column highlighted in green.


 
Lay to a Set Liability Odds Win/Lose   Stake   Profit Total Set  %
Date Details     Adjust     or Loss P / L Liability R O I
11-Jul Donc 2:00  @ 8.6, 4.6 3.00 0   40.00 -80.00 38.00 38.00 80.00 95.00
11-Jul H.Q. 5:00 Avon Breeze 5.90 0   16.33 -80.00 15.51 53.51   95.00
12-Jul York 4.05 Demora 8.00 0   11.43 -80.00 10.86 64.37   95.00
12-Jul Ascot 4:15 Al Khan 6.80 1   13.79 -80.00 -80.00 -15.63   -19.17
13-Jul Ascot 1:55 Taajub 10.00 0   8.89 -80.00 8.44 -7.19   -7.95
13-Jul Chest 4:00 Sir Maximillian 7.20 0   12.90 -80.00 12.26 5.07   4.91
19-Jul Hay 3:50 Imperial Legend 6.80 0   13.79 -80.00 13.10 18.17   15.52
19-Jul HQ 7:55 Peace Seeker 7.00 0 -0.69 12.64 -75.86 12.01 30.18   23.26
02-Aug Thirsk 4:40 Hazza The Jazza 7.20 0   12.90 -80.00 12.26 42.44   29.75
02-Aug Muss 7:50 Oil Strike 6.00 0   16.00 -80.00 15.20 57.64   36.33
05-Aug Rip 3:45 Emilio Largo 4.40 0   23.53 -80.00 22.35 80.00   43.90
06-Aug Catt 3:15 Quality Art 4.40 0   23.53 -80.00 22.35 102.35   49.75
06-Aug Catt 4:45 Majestic Manannan 6.60 0   16.07 -90.00 15.27 117.62 90.00 53.03
06-Aug Rip 7:40 Singeur 6.20 0   17.31 -90.00 16.44 134.06   56.06
07-Aug Brign 3:50 Enriching 10.00 0   10.00 -90.00 9.50 143.56   57.63
08-Aug Brign 3:50 Edwyn Ralph 3.40 0   37.50 -90.00 35.63 179.18   62.52
08-Aug Chep 8:00 The Mongoose 6.40 1   16.67 -90.00 -90.00 89.18   29.41
10-Aug Hay 4:30 Gabriel's Gift 5.50 0   20.00 -90.00 19.00 108.18   33.46
10-Aug Redc 4:55 Bop It 3.05 0   43.90 -90.00 41.71 149.89   40.82
17-Aug Ripon 2:50 love Island 18.00 0   5.29 -90.00 5.03 154.92   41.59
17-Aug Newb 3:50 Glen Moss 5.00 1   22.50 -90.00 -90.00 64.92   16.44
                64.92    

6th Aug  Liability increased

Lay to a percentage liability of a Bank.
This was originally Lay a percentage of a Bank staking plan,
but the losses were unacceptable when the staking hit that first winner.
I therefore changed this staking plan to Lay to a Percentage Liability of a Bank rather than just laying a percentage of the bank.
The lay liability of each lay is dependant on the size of the Bank, our Laying Bank in this case.
With a starting bank of 200, the first stake is set to 40 so that the liability of the first lay is the same as in the other 3 staking methods.
Profit or Loss of lays so far is shown in the  "Bank" column.
Note that profits from this method may look quite attractive, but with the bank growing after each successful lay, potential lay liabilities are also increasing.


 
Lay to % Liability of BANK   >>> 40   5.00 <<<  Commission          
    Odds Win   Stake   Profit Total BANK Reset %
Date Details   or Lose Adjust   Liability or Loss P/L   BANK R O I
11-Jul Donc 2:00  @ 8.6, 4.6 3.00 0   40.00 -80.00 38.00 38.00 200.00   95.00
11-Jul H.Q. 5:00 Avon Breeze 5.90 0   19.43 -95.20 18.46 56.46 238.00   95.00
12-Jul York 4.05 Demora 8.00 0   14.65 -102.58 13.92 70.38 256.46   95.00
12-Jul Ascot 4:15 Al Khan 6.80 1   18.65 -108.15 -108.15 -37.77 270.38   -40.73
13-Jul Ascot 1:55 Taajub 10.00 0   7.21 -64.89 6.85 -30.92 162.23   -30.94
13-Jul Chest 4:00 Sir Maximillian 7.20 0   10.91 -67.63 10.36 -20.56 169.08   -18.55
19-Jul Hay 3:50 Imperial Legend 6.80 0   12.38 -71.78 11.76 -8.80 179.44   -7.14
19-Jul HQ 7:55 Peace Seeker 7.00 0 -0.69 12.06 -72.34 11.45 2.65 191.20   1.96
02-Aug Thirsk 4:40 Hazza The Jazza 7.20 0   13.07 -81.06 12.42 15.07 202.65   10.16
02-Aug Muss 7:50 Oil Strike 6.00 0   17.21 -86.03 16.35 31.42 215.07   18.98
05-Aug Rip 3:45 Emilio Largo 4.40 0   27.23 -92.57 25.86 57.28 231.42   29.71
06-Aug Catt 3:15 Quality Art 4.40 0   30.27 -102.91 28.75 86.03 257.28   38.57
06-Aug Catt 4:45 Majestic Manannan 6.60 0   20.43 -114.41 19.41 105.44 286.03   43.31
06-Aug Rip 7:40 Singeur 6.20 0   23.50 -122.18 22.32 127.76 305.44   47.86
07-Aug Brign 3:50 Enriching 10.00 0   14.57 -131.11 13.84 141.60 327.76   50.29
08-Aug Brign 3:50 Edwyn Ralph 3.40 0   56.93 -136.64 54.09 195.69 341.60   57.81
08-Aug Chep 8:00 The Mongoose 6.40 1   29.31 -158.28 -158.28 37.41 395.69   10.17
10-Aug Hay 4:30 Gabriel's Gift 5.50 0   21.10 -94.97 20.05 57.46 237.41   14.78
10-Aug Redc 4:55 Bop It 3.05 0   50.24 -102.99 47.72 105.19 257.46   23.95
17-Aug Ripon 2:50 love Island 18.00 0   7.18 -122.08 6.82 112.01 305.19   25.10
17-Aug Newb 3:50 Glen Moss 5.00 1   31.20 -124.80 -124.80 -12.79 312.01   -2.68
                -12.79 187.21    

 

Level Stakes.
The lay liability of each lay is dependant on the size of the odds.   The stake remains the same.
The lay stake is set to 40 so that the liability of the first lay is the same as in the other 3 staking methods shown above.
Profit or Loss of lays so far is shown in the  "Bank" column.
I would guess that it may be quite common for us to expect Level Stakes to be better than other methods.
We will see.
Note that profits from this method may look quite attractive, but these are 40 level stakes which produce some massive lay liabilities.
The losses on July 12th and Aug 8th from hitting a winner are far bigger than losses shown in the other 3 staking methods.


 
40 Level Stakes Odds Win/Lose Stake   Profit Bank %
Date Details     40.00 Liability or Loss   R O I
11-Jul Donc 2:00  @ 8.6, 4.6 3.00 0 40.00 -80.00 38.00 38.00 95.00
11-Jul H.Q. 5:00 Avon Breeze 5.90 0 40.00 -196.00 38.00 76.00 95.00
12-Jul York 4.05 Demora 8.00 0 40.00 -280.00 38.00 114.00 95.00
12-Jul Ascot 4:15 Al Khan 6.80 1 40.00 -232.00 -232.00 -118.00 -73.75
13-Jul Ascot 1:55 Taajub 10.00 0 40.00 -360.00 38.00 -80.00 -40.00
13-Jul Chest 4:00 Sir Maximillian 7.20 0 40.00 -248.00 38.00 -42.00 -17.50
19-Jul Hay 3:50 Imperial Legend 6.80 0 40.00 -232.00 38.00 -4.00 -1.43
19-Jul HQ 7:55 Peace Seeker 7.00 0 40.00 -240.00 38.00 34.00 10.63
02-Aug Thirsk 4:40 Hazza The Jazza 7.20 0 40.00 -248.00 38.00 72.00 20.00
02-Aug Muss 7:50 Oil Strike 6.00 0 40.00 -200.00 38.00 110.00 27.50
05-Aug Rip 3:45 Emilio Largo 4.40 0 40.00 -136.00 38.00 148.00 33.64
06-Aug Catt 3:15 Quality Art 4.40 0 40.00 -136.00 38.00 186.00 38.75
06-Aug Catt 4:45 Majestic Manannan 6.60 0 40.00 -224.00 38.00 224.00 43.08
06-Aug Rip 7:40 Singeur 6.20 0 40.00 -208.00 38.00 262.00 46.79
07-Aug Brign 3:50 Enriching 10.00 0 40.00 -360.00 38.00 300.00 50.00
08-Aug Brign 3:50 Edwyn Ralph 3.40 0 40.00 -96.00 38.00 338.00 52.81
08-Aug Chep 8:00 The Mongoose 6.40 1 40.00 -216.00 -216.00 122.00 17.94
10-Aug Hay 4:30 Gabriel's Gift 5.50 0 40.00 -180.00 38.00 160.00 22.22
10-Aug Redc 4:55 Bop It 3.05 0 40.00 -82.00 38.00 198.00 26.05
17-Aug Ripon 2:50 love Island 18.00 0 40.00 -680.00 38.00 236.00 29.50
17-Aug Newb 3:50 Glen Moss 5.00 1 40.00 -160.00 -160.00 76.00 9.05
            0.00 76.00  

 

Level Stakes 10   For information only.
Just to keep things nice and simple, below is shown what happens to 10 level stakes :-
The lay liability of each lay is dependant on the size of the odds.
The lay stake is set to 10.
Compare the size of the lay liabilities shown here with what is shown above.
Now compare the profit and the %ROI.
Level stakes may keep our staking nice and simple, but we may need to deal with bigger liabilities to reach similar profits to those shown above.
If we need bigger stakes and bigger lay liabilities to reach a similar profit, we are trading with more risk.
More risk is reflected in a smaller %ROI.
Less risk produces a bigger %ROI.
Profit or Loss of lays so far is shown in the  "Bank" column.


 
10 Level Stakes Odds Win/Lose Stake   Profit Bank %
Date Details     10.00 Liability or Loss   R O I
11-Jul Donc 2:00  @ 8.6, 4.6 3.00 0 10.00 -20.00 9.50 9.50 95.00
11-Jul H.Q. 5:00 Avon Breeze 5.90 0 10.00 -49.00 9.50 19.00 95.00
12-Jul York 4.05 Demora 8.00 0 10.00 -70.00 9.50 28.50 95.00
12-Jul Ascot 4:15 Al Khan 6.80 1 10.00 -58.00 -58.00 -29.50 -73.75
13-Jul Ascot 1:55 Taajub 10.00 0 10.00 -90.00 9.50 -20.00 -40.00
13-Jul Chest 4:00 Sir Maximillian 7.20 0 10.00 -62.00 9.50 -10.50 -17.50
19-Jul Hay 3:50 Imperial Legend 6.80 0 10.00 -58.00 9.50 -1.00 -1.43
19-Jul HQ 7:55 Peace Seeker 7.00 0 10.00 -60.00 9.50 8.50 10.63
02-Aug Thirsk 4:40 Hazza The Jazza 7.20 0 10.00 -62.00 9.50 18.00 20.00
02-Aug Muss 7:50 Oil Strike 6.00 0 10.00 -50.00 9.50 27.50 27.50
05-Aug Rip 3:45 Emilio Largo 4.40 0 10.00 -34.00 9.50 37.00 33.64
06-Aug Catt 3:15 Quality Art 4.40 0 10.00 -34.00 9.50 46.50 38.75
06-Aug Catt 4:45 Majestic Manannan 6.60 0 10.00 -56.00 9.50 56.00 43.08
06-Aug Rip 7:40 Singeur 6.20 0 10.00 -52.00 9.50 65.50 46.79
07-Aug Brign 3:50 Enriching 10.00 0 10.00 -90.00 9.50 75.00 50.00
08-Aug Brign 3:50 Edwyn Ralph 3.40 0 10.00 -24.00 9.50 84.50 52.81
08-Aug Chep 8:00 The Mongoose 6.40 1 10.00 -54.00 -54.00 30.50 17.94
10-Aug Hay 4:30 Gabriel's Gift 5.50 0 10.00 -45.00 9.50 40.00 22.22
10-Aug Redc 4:55 Bop It 3.05 0 10.00 -20.50 9.50 49.50 26.05
17-Aug Ripon 2:50 love Island 18.00 0 10.00 -170.00 9.50 59.00 29.50
17-Aug Newb 3:50 Glen Moss 5.00 1 10.00 -40.00 -40.00 19.00 9.05
            0.00 19.00  

 

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