Back To The Drawing Board.
Looking for ideas, a betting edge, or a trading strategy ?
This is the Blog of a Betfair strategy developer.
In a gold rush, not everyone
is a gold miner.
There are always those who supply tools for the job and other services.
I like to think that I supply picks and shovels for a few Betfair
prospectors.
Demonstration
Videos
"Analyse
your Data" spreadsheet
2
New
videos :

Introduction and description of the spreadsheet.

Some detail of how the
spreadsheets work together, plus an investigation into the LLR in
races with over 15 runners

My websites.
betformulas.co.uk
Formulas and maths of trading
betandlay.co.uk
Football trading
A list of all my spreadsheets
lives here :
betandlay.co.uk/strategies
Strategies for horse racing and football trading
betandlay.co.uk/bookie
Be A Bookie.
Laying strategies and spreadsheets for
Betfair trading
Old startingstalls.co.uk web site
A very accurate analysis of U.K. horse racing draw
advantages.
Laying web site
Different ways of laying using a bit of imaginative staking.
Also, videos showing live trades. 
Welcome to my Blog
Howard Hutchinson 
For previous posts,
click "The Spoil Heap" tab at the top of this web page. 
30th July
2015. A new lay tipster.
The lays in the first 3 days of my demo have hit far more
winners than losers so as of Friday 31st July, I will be using a
decent tipster who provides a free tip by email most mornings.
I am hoping that his tips get me out of the hole that I have got
myself into, and show just what the One Point Lay staking plan
can do.
Unfortunately, just one lay per day will slow things down a fair
bit.In the past, I had
some success with the selections that I have been using, but
this week they have hit a load of winners so things have taken a
serious nosedive.
My runners would have been very good for demonstrating a betting
spreadsheet rather than a laying sheet . . . . Lol.
That's horse racing.
Onwards and upwards, Howard. 
28th July
2015. Video added for Lay One Point staking plan
spreadsheet.
Follow this link to
view a 3rd
video for these staking plans.
This video describes manual and auto resetting of the basic
stake.We can use a reset
of the stake to reduce the length of a laying sequence.
The video describes how that may keep the stakes down quite a
bit, and reduce the length of a potentially long laying
sequence.
As always, bon chance with your trades, Howard. 
23rd July
2015. New web page up and running.
Follow this link to my new web page for One Point staking plans.
There is a description of One Pont staking, with a screenshot
and 2 videos.
I have set the price of the betting and laying sheets
differently.
Follow this link to see the demo web page. I expect
that to get interesting towards the end of next week when we
have a number of lays in the spreadsheet..
As always, good luck with your trades,
Howard. 
20th July
2015. Online demo of a Lay One Point staking plan.
These old videos describe the One Point staking plan :
A description of
the
betting spreadsheet and how the staking plan works.
A description of
the lay
staking plan.Since
recoding those videos, I have added better facilities to the
spreadsheets.
New replacement videos will be recorded in the coming weeks.
My online Laying demo starts
next Tuesday or Wednesday and will continue most days after that
for a while.
Follow this link to see the demo web page.
My lays will be in horse races, with lay odds mostly below 4.0.
Although the selections that I will be using are available every
day, I don't look at trades every day because of family
commitments, so occasional days will be missed out.
When there are domo trades,
all the days lays will be put on this demo web page in good
time before racing starts for the day.
Results will be uploaded the next day along with that next day's
lays.
The odds used will be Betfair S.P. odds,
The aim of this demonstration is
to win £100 from the lays shown.
Once that happens, I will clear the spreadsheet and a fresh
start will be made.
A fresh start every now and then will keep the web page from
getting too long which should make things easier to follow.
A record will be shown of past Profit & Loss so that we have an
ongoing record of P & L for the whole demo.
The basic stake will be £2, so
staking will increase by £2 until the profit target of £2 of
profit from every race traded is achieved to get us to our £100
of profit each time.
Stakes will therefore progress     2, 4, 6, 8,
10, etc.
Expect some long progressions with stakes into double figures x
£2, so lay stakes of £20+ and £30+ will happen, with some juicy
lay liabilities.
With odds of most runners 4.0 or
below, we can expect that 3 consecutive losers will complete a
laying sequence and get us back to a basic stake of £2 most of
the time.
If we hit a sequence such as W, L, W, L. etc., losses will build
up so we will need more than just 3 consecutive losers to end
our laying sequence.
From reading that, I would expect
that you will be anticipating some big losses along the way and
that the staking plan may be doomed to failure rather than
success.
In my experience so far, losses may not be as dramatic as we may
expect, and if we follow the staking, we will hit our profit
target of One Point of profit from every race sooner or later,
and hit our £100 profit target..
At £2 per race, it should in theory take something close to 50
races before we hit a profit of £100.
That will require some favourable results of course.
If we can get off to a good start by hitting a few losers with
our first few lays, we may be in a comfortable position.
If we hit winners early with our lays, we will trade into the
red and hopefully pick up from there.
At this point, you may not share
my optimism . . . Lol.
The observations above are the result of my cash trades whilst
using this staking method, so I hope all goes well and that we
see the potential of laying for One Point of profit demonstrated
over a period of maybe a month or so of horse racing trades.
Fingers crossed for a successful demo,
Howard. 
11th July
2015. Loss recovery staking using One Point staking plans.
Over the past few months, I have been developing and using a
selection of One Point staking plans.
I am aiming to put these staking plan spreadsheets up on my web
sites, but I need to put videos together and add a new web page.
In particular, I have had some
success using a One Point Laying spreadsheet.
At present, I am paper trading A v B markets in Horse races
using a Both Sides betting sheet to cover both runners with a
single bet.
To start with, I will put a
couple of basic staking plan sheets on my web page :
Basic sheet for betting for one point of profit from every bet.
Basic sheet
for laying for one point of profit from every lay. . . .
. . So far, I have had most success using this laying sheet.
If betting, we
start with a bet of One point on the first bet.
If that hits a loser, the bet stake increases by One Point after
each trade, until we hit our profit target of One Point of
profit from every bet that we have placed..
As bet sizes increase one point at a time in each event, we look
to recover all previous losses and also show a profit of One
Point for every trade that we have made.
Once we hit our profit target of One Point of profit from every
trade so far, we start afresh with a new betting sequence,
starting with a bet of One Point again.
Bets then increase by One Point every time until we again hit
our profit target of One Point of profit from every trade.
We can combine 2 of these One
point staking plans to cover both runners in a 2 runner market
such as
Under/Over Goals, Odd/Even No. of Goals in football matches, or
similar 2 runner markets such as A v B in horse races.
Combine 2 staking plans and we can bet or lay the whole market
with a single bet if betting, or a single lay if laying.
If you have looked at the "Bet
ands Lay Both
Sides" sheet that I have on
my staking plans web page, you will
see that the staking for that is quite aggressive.
That Both Sides method of staking aims to recover all losses so
far, plus some profit   after every losing trade with every
new stake..
These newer sheets are less aggressive.
One point of profit from every bet is less aggressive than the
Both Sides sheet that is already on my Staking Plans web page.
So far, the one that I like best is the Lay staking plan that aims
to make One Point of Profit from Every Trade.
I prefer laying rather than betting, so that is the one that I
have used most and had some success with.
All these staking plans may be
considered as methods for "Chasing your losses", which may not
suit everyone of course.
I hope to have something of interest soon on video.
An online demo would also be a good way to demonstrate what can
happen   win or lose . . . . Lol.
I am looking to put an online demo together using horse races.
It would be nice to start with a basic sheet and if that is a
success, move on to demonstrate a "Both Sides" sheet.
At worst, you may get a bit of entertainment out of my hitting a
few losing trades . . . . . . Lol.
As always, good luck with your trades,
Howard. 
18th April
2015. LOTD Rolling lays and a very dry start to The Flat
Season.
The weather recently has been quite dry with the result that the
going has dried out a little earlier than normal this year.
The effect of that is that the Draw has come into effect in a
few flat races this last week.
Let's hope that the rain stays away.
At Beverley on Thursday, the 15:05
race was a 5F race for older horses.
The horses drawn in the 3 stalls next to the far rail finished
1st, 2nd, & 3rd.
Those used to be the Top 3 stalls, but after stalls renumbering
a few years ago, they are now stalls 1, 2, & 3.
The winner was drawn in stall 2 of 17.
I would guess that we are all familiar with the draw advantage
in Beverley 5F races.
Today at Thirsk, there were 4
races for horses aged 3yrs or older with 8 or more runners over
the 5F & 6F course.
All 4 races were won by horses drawn in the top 6 stalls.
Winners were drawn 4 of 8, 1212, 510 & 1010.
The analysis on these web pages describe Thirsk draw advantages
in detail, using old results :
Thirsk 5F
Thirsk 6F
Follow this link for
links to all UK course & distances.
At the start of the flat season 3
weeks ago, I started a "Lay Of The Day" using my "Rolling Lays"
spreadsheet, with the intention of laying a badly drawn horse
occasionally.
Follow this link to view a
video describing a "Rolling Lays spreadsheet.
I started with a lay liability of £10 with the intention of
"Rolling up" my profits (reinvesting winnings) with the aim of
laying throughout the flat season without hitting a winner with
one of my lays.
If I can double my money a few times, I will have some nice
juicy lays for the risk of only my tenner.
I am waiting for good laying opportunities, so I don't have a
lay every day, but sometimes only once a week..
So far I have layed in 8 races and doubled my money for a
liability of just over £20 for my next lay, hopefully later this
week.
You will probably work out from £10 profit from 8 lays, that I
am not laying favourites . . . Lol.
If I can double my money with another 8 lays I'll be laying for
a liability of £40 and upwards, and if I can double my cash
again, after that I'll be laying for a liability of £80 and
upwards. . . . and so on.
If I hit a winner at any point, I will have lost only my initial
£10, so I am hoping to have a bit of excitement for just £10.
Double my cash and my tenner will see my lay liability increase
. . . 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280 etc. . . if I am very
lucky.
At my present rate, in theory that could be 7 times 8 successful
lays = 56 lays to hit £1280. . . . dream on.
I'm looking for badly drawn
horses, preferably ridden by an inexperienced rider.
I'm also trying to avoid big stables.
Although I had 4 sprint races to choose from today at Thirsk, I
only layed one runner, in the 18:15 race at Thirsk over 6F.
My lady rider (claiming 5 lbs) was drawn 1 of 10 runners. . . .
. . . Betfair Lay odds were 11.0 around dinner time.
Her horse had won only 1 of its 34 races so far, so it looked to
me that drawn in stall 1
she was up against
it a little..
On top of that, Mr. Fallon on the fav was drawn best of all in
stall 10 of 10 . . . Lol.
He won by 4 lengths.
My horse finished 9th of the 10 runners.
My jockey (claiming 3 lbs) at
Beverley on Wednesday was drawn in stall 12 of 17.
From what I could see, it was his first ride at Beverley, so
that looked ok to me for a lay as he was in the "wrong" half of
the draw and not drawn high enough to try running up the stands
rail looking for faster ground.
In the race he attempted to race towards the far side of the
course.
After running prominently early in the race, his mount faded and
he finished 13th, . . . . nearer last than first.
I layed him at odds of 17.0 well before race time.
Apologies for the bit of after
timing here.
If my stakes start to get excitingly large, I may post my
selections on a web page for a bit of added interest . . . for
me at least.
That may take a while laying my runners at double figure odds.
This is a long term game that I am playing, at least until I hit
a winner . . . Lol.
As always, good luck with your trades,
Howard. 
29th March
2015. What helps a horse to win ?
We all have our own way of looking at horse races and trying to
find the winner, or even something that may get placed.
Conversely, we may be looking for a reason why something may not
win so that we can place a lay.
There are lots of bits of information that we might combine
together such as the position in a betting forecast, course
winner, course and distance winner, previous form placings, etc.
. . . .
In my opinion, none of that type of information actually helps a
horse to win its race on the day.
If we look for something that may assist our runner, or
disadvantage our runners, in my opinion one item of information
stands head and shoulders above all the others in flat races on
turf      a good draw.
Draw advantage information has been
provided for many years, but historically, it has been extremely
poor.
By far the best example of extremely poor advice was draw
advantage advice offered for Epsom 5f races way back in the
1970's and 1980's, when all Epsom 5f races were started with the
starting stalls positioned away from the stands, mostly next to
the far (Low) running rail, but occasionally in the centre of
the course.
Stall number one was very often next to the running rail.
At that time, ALL our national newspapers advised a Low draw
advantage in Epsom 5f races..
The theory was that the horses nearest to the Low rail would
enjoy an advantage as they would run next to the running rail.
That "Low draw advantage" advice continued unchanged for at
least 10 years, but unfortunately for punters, it was completely
wrong.
In the late 1970's and early
1980's, I collected draw advantage data and did a simple count
up of the number of wins from each staring stall in all races 5F
to 1 mile at all British race courses.
From my analysis of that data it soon became clear that Epsom 5F
races had
one of the strongest draw advantages in the country, but the
advantage favoured High drawn horses, not those drawn in low
numbered stalls.
Drainage was the dominant factor, and still is today in Epsom 5F
races.
On Epsom's straight course, there is a crosscourse slope which
can be seen on television.
For most of the straight, the Stands side of the straight course
is quite a bit higher than the far side of the straight.
That slope may cause the high side (Stands side) to drain
quicker and dry out quicker than the far side, so we get faster
ground closer to the stands than towards the far running rail.
Until
I pointed that out in the National Press in 1982, it went
completely unnoticed by our national press and other
publications at that time.
Now of course, it is common knowledge.
Follow this link to view the information that I used to come
to that "High draw advantage" conclusion.
The chart nearest to the bottom of that web page shows the old
data from 1976 to 1983 that I used.
That chart shows very clearly that in races for horses aged 3
yrs or older, just 3 horses were winning nearly all 5F races
at Epsom.
They were the 3 horses drawn in the 3 highest numbered stalls,
drawn farthest away from the running rail towards the centre of
the course.
During those years, on good or better going, there were 16 races
for 3yr olds and older horses that had 8 or more runners.
Only 3 winners started from the bottom half of the draw.
12 of the other 13 winners started from the top 3 stalls.
To combat that glaring draw
advantage, Epsom race course now position the starting stalls
next to the High rail on the stands side  never against the low
rail.
They have been doing that since the mid 1980's.
I like to think that I have caused that with my draw advantage
analysis . . . .Lol.
So, if we were to bet or lay in
5F races at Epsom it would be worth taking that into
consideration would it not ?
If the draw is important in Epsom 5f races, it may also be
important in races at other venues.
I haven't updated my draw
advantage information for quite some time, but my guess is that
unless there have been drastic alterations such as those at
Ascot (a new straight course when the new stand was built),
Haydock (a new sprint course), and York (big drainage
alterations), many of the draw advantages of old will still
apply today at some courses.
The best draw advantages occur on
good or better going, so we normally need to wait until about
late May for draw advantages to play a reliable part in
races, but we appear to have had a reasonably dry spring this
year.
The going at Doncaster was nearer Good than Goodsoft this past
weekend.
During the winter, Warwick
racecourse decided to offer only jumps races in future.
As there will not be any flat racing at Warwick we have lost a
very good draw advantage in
Warwick 6F races that was well worth following.
That advantage was due to a bend shortly after the start in
those 6f races, rather than drainage.
If you are not familiar with my
Draw Advantage charts,
a video explanation lives on this web page.
Links to charts for each course and distance are on
the All Courses tab of that web site.
Whether you are a bettor or a
layer, it may be worth considering the draw as part of your
selection process in turf races on the flat, particularly if the
going is good or dryer.
As always, good luck with your trades,
Howard. 
28th March
2015. Cheltenham winning trainers this year, 2015.
Here is a list of
winning trainers at
this year's Cheltenham March
meeting, with the number of wins    There were 27 races :
WP Mullins 8
P Nichols 3
D Pipe
2
N Henderson 2 That is 15 of the 27 winners so far
from just 4 trainers.
All those below had a single win :
N Mulholland
G Elliot
Mis R curtiss
D Weld
A J Martin
A King
W Greatrex
K Bailey
Ms M Mullins
M Bradstock
E Bolger
M ScudamoreEven
amongst the single winner, there are one or 2 trainers who had a
winner the previous year.
I hope you had a profitable Cheltenham this year,
Howard. 
28th
February 2015. Cheltenham trainers in 2014
With Cheltenham just over the horizon, I have been looking to
see how many low profile trainers managed a win at last year's
meeting.
It seems to me that the big guys dominate things every year, so
rather than trying to hit a winner, I am hoping it will be
easier to hit a loser or 2.
It seems to me that high profile trainers dominate jumps
meetings when there is good prize money on offer.
We can see that on a Saturday on television.
My theory is that a horse that has not been running regularly at
courses such as Ascot, Cheltenham, Kempton, Newbury, Sandown,
and maybe Haydock, will be up against very stiff opposition if
chucked into a big race on a Saturday at those courses.
I avoid anything that has won over the course & distance at
those big courses.Another
thing that I look for is the number of runners that less well
known trainers send out each day.
Big stables will regularly run 3, 4, 5, or more horses on some
days, but smaller yards will have only 1 or 2, often at less
fashionable courses.
Betfair's results section is good for spotting that as we can
click on the trainer in there and it pulls up their past runners
in date order.
That's how I tackle finding something to lay on a Saturday,
usually just one for my LOTD in the big Saturday handicap.
Here is a list of
winning trainers at
last year's Cheltenham March
meeting, with the number of wins    There were 27 races :
WP Mullins 4
D Pipe 3
JJ O'Neill 3
P Hobbs 2
J Culloty 2 That is 14 of the 27 winners
so far from just 5 trainers.
All those below had a single win :
Mrs J Harrington
N Henderson
P Nicholls
A King
J Snowden
Miss R Curtiss
GL Moore
T Easaterby
DK WEld
G Elliot
N Meade
L Lennon
AJ Martin
Personally,
as I am not very
familiar with Irish trainers,
I cut out the Irish in general from my calculations.
I don't see many small UK trainers left in that list after that.
If you care to look back at the 2013 results, there was a very
similar trend.
Each Lay Of The Day for me will probably be at double figure
odds.
I see no point in laying something that is expected to win or go
close.
If an inexperienced jockey is in the driving seat, so much the
better.
Bon chance with your Cheltenham lays if you have a go at them,
Howard. 
17th
December 2014. Lay a Double . . . . 4 possible outcomes.
It didn't take me long to realize that laying big odds in a
Yankee involved some huge lay liabilities if I hit 2 winners and the
next lay could involve a treble or 2, and maybe the 4 timer
which could make the potential lay liabilities look frightening..
I decided that a better idea would be to lay 4 runners in 6
doubles, rather than include the 3 trebles and 4 timer to
complete a Yankee.
Now if I hit 2 or more winners within my 4 runners, my payout
will only be on a double or doubles.
That looked a lot less dangerous,
but I then came to the conclusion that if I hit a winner with
the first of my 4 lays, I had 3 more lays to go before
completing my lays to complete the 6 doubles.
If my runners were Horses A, B, C, and D, the 6 doubles would be
AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, & CD.
Hit a winner with a lay of Horse A, and my next 3 lays of Horses
B, C, & D could all complete a double if one of those won.
That looks like one chance in 3 to me of coming unstuck, or even
3 chances in 3, possibly with some big odds.
To cut things down further, it
may be best just to lay one double at a time.
Now if I hit a winner, the risk is that my next runner also
wins.
Hit 2 consecutive winners and I have a loss.
If it loses,
I have profit, so start a 2nd double.
Hit a loser at any point and I have profit, and start a fresh
double with the next runner.
I put a spreadsheet together for
that using level stakes so that I can keep track of what happens
including commission deductions when I lay my doubles.
Some very helpful email correspondence put me onto what I am
looking at now.
Thank you very much "D.C" for your feedback and suggestions. . .
. . That was just great.
My theory now is to select a 2 runner market that has plenty of
money matched, and lay the outsider of the 2 selections at just
above odds of 2.0, (Just above evens).
In theory, there should be just less than a 50  50 chance of
laying a winner, so the chance of hitting a double should be
something better than odds of 2.0, plus a little further than
that.
If we Bet £1 on 2 runners both at
odds of 2.0, the potential payout is 3 stakes.
The calculation for that is : (£1 x 2.0 x 2.0)
minus our £1 original stake = £3
If we are Laying, the lay payout on the first runner if it wins
is £1.
That loss plus our original lay stake is carried onto the 2nd
runner in our double, so if that also wins, we lose another £2,
but our lay stake is returned.
The total loss from laying a double at odds of 2.0 & 2.0 =
minus £3.
Lay a double, and there are 4
possible outcomes :
Win / Win, Win / Lose, Lose / Win,
Lose / Lose..
It looks to me as if our chance of winning with our £1 is
therefore 3 against 1, before commission deductions on any
successful lay.
Looking at that, it appears to me
that even if we lay close to even money odds of 2.0, the odds
are in our favour, somewhere between 2/1 and 3/1 including
commission deductions..
I hope that Murphy's Law doesn't have too much influence on my
logic . . . . . . . . Lol.
We will see what happens in the next week or so, as I look to
lay some doubles, one at a time, with odds close to 2.0.
If that works out anything close
to ok, we may be able to use bigger odds with bigger lay
liabilities, but with lay payout less often.
Lay our
double at odds bigger than 2.0 and the lay payout increases, so
are our 3/1 odds reduced or increased ???
Lay a £1 double at odds of 3.0 & 3.0 and the potential payout is
minus £8.
We need to hit more losers to cover a payout, and we certainly
have more commission to pay on bigger successful lays if we have
hit a winner, and then hit a loser with the 2nd lay of our
double, for a Win / Lose outcome.
This is starting to give me a headache,
Howard.. 
10th
December 2014. Lay a Yankee.
If you read through my earlier posts, you may come to the
conclusion that the basis of my trades revolves around the risk
free trading of bookie refunds that are available to existing
bookie customers.
I've done very well out of those for a number of years.
Over the last 2 or 3 years, my bookie accounts with the big
bookies have gradually dwindled as I have either had my refunds
and bonuses stopped, stake sizes limited, or accounts closed.
On top of that, bookies these days are nowhere near as generous
with their refund offers as the used to be.
The result is that my monthly profits have gradually declined,
so over the past several months I have been looking for an
alternative way of getting into profit every month.
Over the past few weeks, I have been
looking at trading odds movements in horse races as per the Bet
Trader software videos, but predicting which way the odds will
move is anybody's guess, so I have been racking my brains for an
alterative.
Me and my trading buddy have tried several tipster services over
the past few months, but I find that they don't suit my style as
I feel tied to my computer every day, waiting for the tips to
turn up via email, and anyway, where's the fun in betting on
someone else's selections ?
Whilst I have been doing that, I
have kept returning to looking at laying multiples, in
particular, Yankee bets in Betfair or Betdaq.
I have a spreadsheet for that of course,
follow this link.
The strategy for laying a Yankee
in an exchange using a spreadsheet is to lay each runner one at
a time so that we know the result of one event before we lay the
next.
As our Yankee progresses, the spreadsheet works out the stake
required for our next lay, depending on what winners or losers
we have hit with the previous lays in our Yankee.
That is all straightforward enough, but the big question is,
"What can we do to try to avoid laying 2 or more winners within
our Yankee's 4 runners and have a BIG payout ?"
A selection process would be
nice, but in my experience, picking losers is no easier that
picking winners.
I even layed a
horse at odds of 100.0 a while back.
Not everyone can claim to have managed that !!!
With that in mind, I have been
looking for a mathematical solution rather than a "Normal"
selection process.
Perhaps we may be less likely to lay a double if we target
runners in a price range that may not hit 2 winners or more in
any 4 selections.
That is what I am working with at present.
This is the "Theory" of the
logic that I am currently paper trading :
It is well documented that if enough money is in a market, the
odds will reflect the chances of the runners involved.
So, with plenty of liquidity, we can expect and even money
chance, ( Betfair odds 2.0 ), to win 50% of the time, or once in
every 2 races.
If that is true, we can expect a 3/1 chance
( odds of 4.0 )
to win once in every 4 races, 25% of the time.
Our Yankee is a bet of 4 runners.
The minimum payout is on a double    2 runners, so, if we lay
4 runners with odds of 3/1 (4.0), in the long term we can expect
to hit one winner every time with our 4 runner Yankees.
If we can do that, every one of our Lay Yankees will be
successful as we will only hit a single runner each time, not 2
or more.
Unfortunately, our winners and losers will come in bunches of
course, so if we lay all our runners at odds of 4.0, we may lay
several Yankees and hit zero winners, but at other times we may
hit 2 or more winners within the 4 runners of a Yankee and have
payout.
To get around that, we may lay
bigger odds.
That should reduce the chance of hitting 2 or more winners
within a Yankee of 4 selections.
That is the logic that I am working with.
To reduce my chances of hitting 2 winners in 4 selections, we
may double the odds that we lay, and lay odds of maybe 8.0.
To add a bit more certainty, (a bad choice of word that, .
. . Lol. ), we could increase our lay odds to 10.0, and our
chances of hitting one winner, in theory become 0ne in every 10
selections.
Hitting 2 winners should occur once in every 20 selections. . .
. In theory. . . . I hope.
With a bit of luck, those may be more than 4 runners apart,
which would give me a lot of successfully layed Yankees.
So my current rules are very
simple :
Select races at random and lay one horse in each of 4 races.
The selection to lay in each race is the first horse in the
betting with odds in double figures, 10.0 or bigger.
Lay at a minimum odds of 10.0 and
I would guess that our chances of hitting 2 winners in 4 runners
would be quite slim.
It will happen if we lay enough Yankees, but laying 2 winners in
4 runners for a payout should be vastly reduced if we lay bigger
odds.
The problem with that of course is that a payout on hitting 2
winners at odds of 10.0 will be a lot bigger than a payout on 2
winners at odds of say, 4.0, but it should occur far less often.
We could of course get off to a very bad start and hit a payout
or 2 early in our trades.
To minimise the chances of a
payout even further, I am keeping records of the number of
runners in my races, and anything else that springs to mind,
such as avoiding big trainer  jockey combinations, and laying
only horses from the smaller yards.
A smaller yard could be a gambling yard of course    
 so laying big prices still carries plenty of doubt and
apprehension. . . .Lol.
All of these things will already be built into the odds, if the
"Liquidity theory" is correct.
I may end up laying only in races
with plenty of runners, and stakes races rather than handicaps,
etc., etc, . . . you know how it goes.
So, that's what I am up to at present, but only on paper.
I realize that winners can come from anywhere, and that a horse
doesn't know what price it is when it sets off, so anything can
happen.
I'll keep you posted on progress of my "On Paper Yankees".
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard. 
4th
November 2014. Odds to avoid. . . . . 3, 4, 6, 10, .
. . or to look for ?
If you decide to bet and lay some odds, maybe in horse racing
markets hoping to hedge to a profit, if the odds move in an
unfavourable direction, it may be worth considering what happens
if we bet at odds of 3.0, 4.0, 6.0 or 10.0,. or possible
just below those odds.
Those are the points at which Betfair increments change in size.
The implications of that are that if the odds move against us so
that we need to lay at higher odds to exit our trade, a onetick
loss may be more than twice the size of a onetick profit if the
odds had dropped and we were able to lay at odds lower than our
bet odds.
If we bet at odds of 3.0, the
next odds increment down is 2.98, a difference of 0.02.
If we bet at
odds of 3.0, the next odds increment up is 3.05, a difference of
0.05.
So, if we bet £100 and lay at 2.98 to equalize our trade for an
equal profit, we would show a profit of plus £0.67.
If things go against us and we lay at 3.05, we show a loss of
minus £1.64,
a difference of almost £1.
Take 5% commission off the £0.67 profit, and we are left with a
£0.64 onetick profit against a onetick loss of
£1.64.
Bet at odds of 4.0 and the next
increments are down 3.95, and up 4.1, a difference of 0.05 or
0.10.
Bet £100 at odds of 4.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :
Minus £2.44 or plus £1.27, or
£1.21 after commission.
Bet at odds of
6.0 and the next increments are down 5.9, and up 6.2, a
difference of 0.1 or 0.20.
Bet £100 at odds of 6.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :
Minus £3.23 or plus £1.69, or
£1.61 after commission.
Bet at odds of
10.0 and the next increments are down 9.8, and up 10.5, a
difference of 0.2 or 0.50.
Bet £100 at odds of 10.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :
Minus £4.76 or plus £2.04, or
£1.94 after commission.
Trade around these odds, and
making a profit becomes harder than if we were trading odds that
didn't have an odds increment change between our bet and lay
odds.
The way to get around these potential difficulties is to avoid
trading odds that are close to 3.0, 4.0, 6.0 or 10.0 if you are
placing a Bet First trade . . . . looking for a decrease in the
odds.
If you are considering betting and laying some odds with the
intention of betting high and laying low to "Green Up", you
might consider placing your initial bet some way away from odds
of 3, 4, 6, or 10.
However, if you anticipate that
your odds will be getting bigger so you are laying first in
anticipation of the odds increasing, it may be to your advantage
to lay at these odds, or even one tick bigger.
If we do that, things work in our favour :
Lay £100 at
odds of 3.0 and equalize one tick up or down for : plus £1.64,
or £1.59 after commission, or
minus £0.67.
Lay
£100 at odds of 4.0 and equalize one tick up or down for : plus
£2.44, or £2.32 after commission, or
minus £1.27.
Lay
£100 at odds of 6.0 and equalize one tick up or down for : plus
£3.23, or £3.07 after commission, or
minus £1.69.
Lay
£100 at odds of 10.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :
plus £4.76, or £4.52 after commission, or
minus £2.04.
As always, good luck with the
trades, and don't forget 3, 4, 6, & 10, if you are betting and
laying odds . . . Howard. 
1st
November 2014. Horse racing odds movements.
In the next week or so, I may be linking from here to some
software that may help with predicting odds movements in horse
races.
There may also be links to demonstration videos.
I'll be having a go with the
software myself.
The initial cost of that will be just
99 pence for the first month.
After that, the cost of using the software will be substantially
more, so watch for the link from here sometime after Monday
November 10th.
Good luck with the trades, Howard. 
8th September 2014.
New
Analyse web page
up and running.
After some video software problems, I've eventually put a new
"Analyse Data" tab on
my Strategies web site.
Another problem that I had is that the Analyse spreadsheet file
will not load into Open Office software. . . . It will
only work in Excel.
A smaller version of the file worked ok in Open Office, but once
I expanded it to accommodate more columns of data, Open Office
refused to cooperate.
I've put a warning about that and the size of the Excel file on
my web page.
So, if you are interested in improving your selection process
for your bets in any sport, you might take a look at the videos
for this new file.Last
week, I started collecting some Premiership football data,
including Betfair odds.
I'm looking to add another video to the 2 that are on the
Analyse Data tab of
my Strategies web site to demonstrate
how the sheet could be used to analyse football data.
I will need maybe 3 or 4 weeks of results to get started with
that, but even then that will only be 30 or 40 games. . . .
A very small sample.
30 or 40 games will have to do for a footy demonstration,
otherwise we'll be heading towards December before I put a
football video together.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard. 
15th August
2014. Analyse your results.
I've had a break from putting spreadsheets together and
enjoyed things on my domestic scene for the past month or 3, but
now I'm ready to put one or 2 new ideas forward on my web sites.
My main offering will be a spreadsheet file that will enable
data or results to be analysed.
If you have a series of results available that maybe show a
profit, this spreadsheet package will enable you to analyse
those results further and see exactly what is working for you
and what isn't.
For example, you may have some horse racing results with detail
such as Odds,
Distance,
Type of race, Age group, Course,
etc.
You may even have a list of results from a tipping service that
may only quote the odds of past winners and losers.
Whatever the information that you have available, it can be
analysed to get the best out of it.
This spreadsheet package has a data
input tab that allows input of odds, plus another 3 columns for
analysis of anything that involves numbers, and 2 columns for
anything that involves text.
Input your odds, result for a winner or a loser, plus up to 5
other bits of info for anything else that involves numbers or
text.
Then go to an "Analysis" spreadsheet in the same file to see
graphs of each of those different items of information showing
the profit or loss over the time period of your input.
Now for the interesting bit.
Inputs on this Analysis spreadsheet allow you to set limits for
each item of information, and see what the profit or loss would
be within those limits.
For example, you might set upper and lower limits for your Odds
so that you can see which odds pay best, short odds, big odds,
or something in between.
An example for information involving a text input might be the
type of race : You might look at whether stakes races pay
better than handicaps, or if sellers, amateurs races, apprentice
races, or All Weather races etc. affect your profit & loss.
The choice is yours.
For each of your bits of individual information, the Analysis
spreadsheet shows the total number of races and the number of
winners and losers as you alter your number limits, or text
criteria.
The Total races and number of winners are used to show your
Winning Strike Rate within the limits that you set, or the text
item that you select.
Profit or loss to a £1 level stake is shown, and a graph shows
the progress of that profit or loss over the period of your data
input.
I will be adding LLR (Longest Losing Run), and LWR (Longest
Winning Run) to those displays.
Once you have done the "Fine
Tuning" for each individual bit of information, to get the best
out each of them, they are all combined on a single graph, with
a list of the limits that you have set.    giving you a
written list of your "Filters".
You now have your personal "Betting Method", with your filter
rules listed.
Once again, you can see Total Races, winning strike rate, P & L,
and the progress of your profit and loss shown on a graph, this
time for all your filters combined.
Alter any filter, and your list of filters will reflect that and
the P & L graph will update.
Your analysis need not be limited
to horses of course.
You can input information related to anything you like,
football, dogs, tennis, cricket, the weather . . . .anything.
If you are betting on something at present, why not keep track
of the results and tweak your betting as you go along ?
At present, I only have a betting
Analysis spreadsheet package, but I will be converting that so
that we can also analyse lays.
So, if you are interested in analysing your stuff, or anything
other data that you come across, such as the results of some
tips on a web page somewhere, you might like to analyse those
bits of information and improve things a little.
Once your data is in the spreadsheet, you can manipulate it as
much as you like, very quickly, easily, and very accurately.
The results of your analysis will be instant, with a graphical
display of profit and loss that updates immediately.
I'll be adding a new web page to
one or more of my web sites to accommodate this Analysis
spreadsheet package.
A video or 2 will describe the spreadsheets and demonstrate what
you might get out of the data you input.
That will take a while.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard. 
21 April
2014. Arsenal beat Hull 0  3.
Apologies for putting a tip up rather than discussing staking in
the previous post below.
Very pleasing results all round with Everton also beating Man U.
I think we can expect a different Hull side to be competing for
the F.A. Cup in May.
Howard. 
19th April
2014. Lay of the day tomorrow . . . . Hull.
I'm not a very good tipster, but . . . . .
If Arsenal qualify for the
Champions league, Hull get to play in Europe next season
whether they win or lose the FA Cup in May.
If Arsenal don't qualify for
Europe, Hull will only get to play in Europe if they beat
Arsenal in the FA Cup Final.
With that in mind :
Those 2 teams meet tomorrow, Sunday, in the Premiership.
Arsenal are currently 4th in the
Premiership, 1 point in front of Everton, so a win for
Arsenal against Hull would keep them one point in front of
Everton at the very least.
A draw could see Everton
overtake Arsenal if Everton beat Man Utd.
Man Utd have nothing to play for
now.
With both Everton and Spurs
ahead of them for the Premiership 5th place Europa spot, Man
U are not in close contention for Europe or anything else.
The 2 games kick off at : 14:05
Hull  Arsenal, and 16:10 for Everton  Man U.
From a business point of view,
it is not in Hull's interest to win tomorrow's game against
Arsenal.
If Hull take the lead, a Draw
result after that would not look as bad as a Hull loss after
being in a winning situation.
Questions might be asked by
Everton.
So, in my opinion, the thing to
do is lay Hull.
It makes no sense for Hull to
win this game, and not much sense for Hull to Draw either,
so logically, Hull must be a lay.
Arsenal will be looking to put
one over on Hull in readiness for the FA Cup Final.
Also, Arsenal one point clear of
Everton in 4th spot, need to keep winning to make sure that
they qualify for The Champion's League..
Arsenal have an easier run for
their last few games than Everton.
Even so, every point counts, so
Arsenal will be up for a Win.
Hull should be up for a Lose.
That's my assessment for what
it's worth.
Arsenal play Hull before Everton
meet Man U, so Hull must play this game and make sure that
they do not win.
That will almost certainly get
Hull into Europe regardless of what happens in the FA Cup
Final.Hull are
currently on 36 points   6 & 7 points clear of the bottom
3 Premiership teams.
Hull have games in hand on those 3 teams, but still have to
play Fulham, Villa, Man U, and Everton.
I'll be laying Hull.
Current odds are Bet 4.7, Lay 4.8,
Good luck if you have a go at that, but please bear in mind
that anything can happen in a football match. . . . Lol,
Howard.

7th April
2014. How to trade bookie accumulator refunds to
profit.
I updated
my Bookie Refunds web page.
today to include this new spreadsheet.
I put a video together last week to describe the staking for
several different kinds of bookie accumulator refund.
This spreadsheet package now has 5 videos that describe a couple
of spreadsheets and some accumulator refund trades that I did a
while ago.
Good luck with your accumulators if you have a go at them,
Howard. 
28th March
2014. Lay an accumulator spreadsheet.
Bookies seem to be offering more refunds and bonus payments that
involve betting a double, treble, or a 4 or 5 timer.
For the past few months, since September 2013, I have been
trading these successfully to guaranteed winnings with zero or
very little risk to my cash.
I put some videos together several months ago to describe the
spreadsheet that I am using and to show live trades and the
results.
I am now almost ready to put this spreadsheet package up on
my Bookie Refunds web page.
I need to put another video or 2 together and then I can go
ahead with that.Just as
with the bookie offers that we are used to seeing, these
accumulator offers come in several different forms :
 Bet an accumulator and get a
free bet.
 Bet an accumulator and get a
free accumulator bet.
 Bet an winning accumulator
and the bookie will add a percentage to our winnings.
I wouldn't attempt to profit from a low percentage bonus
such as 10% or 20% when trading acumulators.
 Bet an accumulator and get a
refund if our accumulator is a loser.
This last one may be described by your bookie as a "No Lose"
offer.
Refunds may be a cash refund of
our bet stake, or more often these days, our stake may be
refunded as a free bet.
Whatever the offer, these bookie accumulator offers are well
worth looking at.
Mostly, they can be traded to profit with zero or very little
risk.
Surprisingly, one of the best sources of these refunds over the
last 6 or 7 months has been Betfair's Fixed Odds web site that
is bolted onto the exchange.
Even Betdaq got into the swing of things during Cheltenham week
with a 100% winnings added offer on each of the 4 days if we bet
a £10 double using their Multiples section.
If you missed that at the time, it was an offer to double our
winnings up to £1000 if we hit a winning £10 double in the
Cheltenham races.
An offer like that with a £1000
bonus within the text may conjure up visions of amazing
possibilities, but the end result of trading these accumulator
refunds is exactly the same as if we were trading similar offers
for a single selection :
The profit from trading the qualifying bet, plus a 2nd trade of
the free bet produces a profit that is a percentage of our
original bet stake.
For example, if we bet £10 with a bookie to qualify for a £10
free bet, we expect to make a small loss when betting and laying
the £10 qualifying bet.
We then bet and lay the free bet, knowing that we can make
guaranteed profit of 70% of our free £10, or more if we trade a
horse, maybe less for football.
That £7 recovers the small loss from trading the qualifying bet
and gives us profit on top.
We may make more than £5 or £6 from the 2 trades combined, with
zero risk to our cash.
These accumulator refund and bonus offers work on exactly the
same principle :
 Bet and lay the qualifier.
 Bet and lay the free bet.
 The overall profit will be a
percentage of our original bet stake.
The profit will generally be slightly smaller than we might
expect from a normal free bet offer, but can be very similar
if we are able to lay suitable odds.
There are 2 strategies.
Mostly, we can select runners or football teams for our double,
treble, or 4 or 5 timer, with time between each event.
We then lay those in turn as they take place.
If we hit a winner with our first lay, we need to lay the 2nd
runner or team to recover those lost liabilities.
Hit the winner with our 2nd lay and we need to recover the lost
liabilities from both races 1 and 2, and so on.
Hit a loser at any point and that is end of trade.
We have a successful lay that recovered lost liabilities, but a
losing bet with our bookie.
Get the staking right whilst we are doing that and we can trade
to profit every time over the 2 trades, qualifying bet plus free
bet combined, providing that our lay odds don't increase whilst
we are waiting for races or games to complete.
We can lay so that our
liabilities are less than our bet winnings if we hit all
winners.
Whilst we are doing that, we can lay to recover all lay losses
so far, plus a profit on top.
Remember that that we will be trading a free bet, so the bet
loss will be zero.
Hit a loser, and we have profit.
Hit all winners and we have profit.
Stake our lays to suit the terms of the refund and we can profit
from each type of offer described above.
That is the basics of method One
    choose runners for our accumulator with time between
each event so that we can lay them one at a time.
Method 2 introduces an element of risk, but I have traded method
2 without a free bet whilst testing my spreadsheet.
I had my ups and downs whilst doing that, and came out slightly
in front after a few trades.
I made mistakes that caused me red trades, so a learning curve
was involved in a couple of those trades.
This is method 2 :
Occasionally, the bookie offer will force us to trade football
games that all kick off at or around the same time, such as
Champions League or Premiership games.
An offer might be " Bet 5 x £10 on Premiership games this
weekend, get a free 5 fold accumulator for next weekend's
Championship games."
Betfair were particularly fond of that type of offer for a
while.
Other similar offers from Betfair involved Champions League
games.
If the free 5 timer involves games that do not have 5 games that
kick off with time between those games, we need to bet 5 teams
that all kick off at the same time and then look to lay them at
lower odds "In Play" as goals are scored.
If our teams don't score and get into a winning position, we
cannot trade out so we may have to take the hit of the cost of
the qualifying bets.
To trade the 4 or 5 games of our free accumulator "In Play" all
at the same time, we need to use the balanced staking of
Dutching.
I have a "Dutching" spreadsheet for that, but this is not really
Dutching as a loss in one game is not deducted before commission
is taken off profit in another of our games.
If we were Dutching a single market such as Correct Score in a
single game, losses would be deducted from profit before we pay
commission.
As we will be laying a team 4 or 5 different games, we will pay
commission on each of those games.
The sheet is simple enough, and uses the balanced staking of
Dutching to get the correct staking so that our profit or loss
is very similar for each of our lays.
The good news if we are forced to
use this Dutching method is that if we are lucky, this kind of
trade can pay extremely well.
If all of our teams have all been in a winning position,    a
goal or 2 in front, but then the other team score to get the
score to a Draw or have our team losing by a goal, we can
have a good profit from what becomes a successful lay of our
now, losing team.
If 2 of our teams get into a losing position after we have layed
them, that is even better news    Congratulations, it's our
birthday . . Lol.
Ideally, we would be laying our
teams when they are in a winning position with their lay odds
somewhere below odds of 1.2.
Lay £34.48 at odds of 1.16 and we have liabilities of
minus £5.52.
If that team then gets into a Draw or losing position, we have a
successful lay of plus £34.48, less 5% commission = plus £32.76.
Be lucky enough to put 2 of those together and profits really
start to take off.
Trades like that are unlikely to come along very often, but
anything can happen in a football match.
I've come extremely close to hitting one of those whilst doing
just a few trades.
I missed it by a few seconds.
A goal was scored whilst I was placing my lay     It was as
close as that.
Once I put another video or 2
together, this "Trade a Bookie Accumulator Refund or Bonus"
package will be available on my web site.
If you would like the spreadsheets now, just email me and we
can arrange your £10 PayPal payment and I'll send the
spreadsheet file by email with links to a couple of videos to
get you started.
I have come to look forward to
these accumulator refunds.
They are a little bit different from other refunds, maybe a bit
more of a challenge, mainly due to the possibility of our lay
odds getting bigger, but easy enough to do once you get used to
them.
They also add to the profit total at the end of the month.
As always, good luck with your trades, especially your
accumulators if you have a go at them, Howard. 
9th March
2014. Zero %, 3% and 5% commission rates.
Ladbrokes recently opened a betting exchange to compete with
Betfair, Betdaq, etc.
Laddies have an offer at present of zero commission for a
month if we open an exchange account during March, plus a
boatload of free bets if we continue to bet and lay with them.
As you know, liquidity can be a problem if we are not using
Betfair, but with Betfair's commission rate at 5% and the other
exchanges
some way below that, it can pay better to take worse odds, but
at a more favourable commission rate.
I've put a simple spreadsheet
together to demonstrate that.
Use this link to
download the free spreadsheet.
If the file opens as "Read only" or cells B1, D2 and G2 appear
to be locked, just rename the file and it should then work ok
for you.
The spreadsheet allows us to input any stake size and 2
commission rates.
It then shows the profit from a bet or a lay using that stake
size for the bet or the lay over a range of odds from 1.94 up to
50.0.
Profits after commission deductions are shown for the 2
commission rates that we input, plus zero commission.
We can now see which of our 3
exchanges pays best.
It may pay better if we take less favourable odds, but at a
lower commission rate.
The screenshot below shows the lower end of the odds in the
sheet.
I have entered a bet or lay stake of £10 at cell B1.
If we look at the profit at odds of 2.0, we can see that a £10
bet or lay will return a profit of £9.50 in columns F & G after
5% commission deductions.
At 3% commission in columns D & E, we can afford to bet 2 ticks
lower at 1.98 and still show a bigger profit at cell D9 of £9.51.
With zero commission, we can bet 5 ticks lower for an identical
£9.50 profit at odds of 1.95 at cell B6.
If you are placing a single bet
or lay, or betting with a bookie and laying in an exchange, it
may be worth considering an alternative to Betfair.
These other exchanges are offering very attractive commission
rates.
Close odds of Bet 2.0 and Lay 2.02, may not pay better than
slightly worse looking odds elsewhere.
Taking advantage of the most competitive commission rates can
add an unexpected little bit extra to profits.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard. 
1st January
2014. Trading Betdaq odds.
I seem to be using Betdaq more and more these days.
Gaps in the Betdaq odds is still a problem, but with a bit of
thought, we can squeeze the best out of the Betdaq odds.
Tonight, I had a free Betfair bet on NBA Basketball.
I was looking for some big odds to trade, so looked at the
biggest available in tonight's games.
The free bet "Bet odds" that I was looking to trade were 7.0
(lay odds were 7.4), but the Betdaq odds looked really bad with
bet odds at 6.0, and lay at 8.6.
At first glance, that looks like a complete disaster, but I
decided to bet at the 7.0 on offer in Betfair and then offered
to lay at 7.8 in Betdaq, which was some way below the
Betdaq lay odds of 8.6, but some way above the current bet odds
in Betfair of 7.4.My bet
of 7.0 was matched immediately and my lay in Betdaq at 7.8 was
matched very quickly, probably after about 10 or 15 seconds.
Bet at 7.0 and lay at 7.8 may still look pretty bad, but as you
can see from the screenshot of my spreadsheet below, I still
came out with a profit of £7.12 whatever the result from my £10
free bet trade.
70% profit from a free bet trade is certainly ok with me.
In the screenshot below, we can see that if I hit a winner with
my free £10 bet, I have winnings of £57 after 5% commission at
column G, and lay liabilities of minus £49.88 at cell E15 for a
profit of £7.12.
If I hit a loser, I have a successful lay of £7.34 at cell B15,
which gives a profit of £7.12 after deducting 3% commission.
My bet loss is zero as my bet was free.
After making this trade, I deducted the cost of my qualifying
bets, which left me with an overall profit on the total trades
combined.
This Exchange to Exchange
spreadsheet is available on my Bookie Refunds web page.
The file contains spreadsheets for trading Exchange to Exchange
qualifying bets and also free bets.
Commission on both sides of the trade is built into the
calculations.
Commission rates can be reversed in the sheets so that they can
be used for betting and laying Betfair to Betdaq or the other
way around.
The point I am making here is
that even though the Betdaq odds may look unacceptable, if we
look at what is on offer in Betfair and offer something a tick
or 2 better in Betdaq, we can quite often get matched in Betdaq
without any problems.
Bot traders will be looking for the slightest of edges between
Betfair and Betdaq odds and will soon latch on to the nice
attractive odds that we offer.
Other traders will also be looking for the better odds that we
offer in Betdaq, rather than just relying on what is available
in Betfair.
Providing that the odds that we offer give us a good trade, we
can go ahead and offer what look like very attractive odds
compared to what is available in Betfair.
I find that sports such as basketball may have gaps in the
Betfair market and quite often may not have odds available in
Betdaq that are close to what we see in Betfair.
We can often get around that problem by offering odds a tick or
2 better in one exchange than in the other.
With commission at 3%, Betdaq is always worth looking at.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard. 
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