Back To The Drawing Board.
Looking for ideas, a betting edge, or a trading strategy ?
This is the Blog of a Betfair strategy developer.
In a gold rush, not everyone
is a gold miner.
There are always those who supply tools for the job and other services.
I like to think that I supply picks and shovels for a few Betfair
your Data" spreadsheet
Introduction and description of the spreadsheet.
Some detail of how the
spreadsheets work together, plus an investigation into the LLR in
races with over 15 runners
Formulas and maths of trading
A list of all my spreadsheets
lives here :-
Strategies for horse racing and football trading
Be A Bookie.
Laying strategies and spreadsheets for
Old startingstalls.co.uk web site
A very accurate analysis of U.K. horse racing draw
Laying web site
Different ways of laying using a bit of imaginative staking.
Also, videos showing live trades.
Welcome to my Blog
For previous posts,
click "The Spoil Heap" tab at the top of this web page.
2015. Back to the drawing board and an excellent weekend
away for you.
As expected really, I hit a winner and lost my tenner, but it
was entertaining while it lasted.
I'm now laying some tips and hoping for a bit more success.
On a totally different subject, if
you like live music, I strongly recommend that you take a look
at the videos via the links below.
Last July, my wife and I went to the 3 day UK Boogie Woogie
festival in Dorset.
Without any exaggeration, I can honestly say that it was the
best 3 days I can remember.
There was so much happening that we completely missed fitting in
a meal at teatime on the Friday - - - ended up eating a few
sandwiches, tomatoes, and bananas from the boot of our car
in the car park.
If you like lively music from
world class musicians, this is for you. . . .
UK Boogie Woogie Festival, July 3rd, 4th & 5th 2015.
Sturminster Newton, Dorset, England.
This festival is small.
All the venues allow you to get up close, or at worst, see the
artists from a very short distance, in fact you can even lean on
the piano if you like at some venues.
There are free performances inside and outside cafes in the
small market town of Sturminster Newton, and even in the local
church. . . Lol.
Follow this link for details of
the UK Boogie Woogie festival 2015 and
a list of this year's international artists - - - pianists,
Follow this link to
a YouTube video by a star man who will be playing this year.
I bet you can't watch that video and keep your feet still.
I'm not religious, but we
church at last year's festival. . . . <<< .check out the
My wife is in a prominent pew in a pink top with a big smile.
I'm sat to her left in this video.
Expect very informal
"Jammimg sessions" with 2 pianos, "T chest" base, snare
drum, and international dancers.
In this video, the chap with the hat was from Ilkley, West
Yorkshire, and the chap with the glasses was from Holland, I
That video will give you a good idea of just how uncrowded this
All venues are within the small market town of Sturminster.
No mud and tents are involved, so it's all very civilized, with
non-stop, top class entertainment in different small venues
around the town.
You can easily walk between every one of them.
Look closely, and you can spot me in the video in a blue and
white hooped T shirt in this Sunday afternoon after show jam
You can join in if you care to.
The chap close to the bar dressed in a white shirt and wearing
shorts played piano earlier.
When he struck up with the Ray Charles number, "Hallelujah I
just love her so",
I joined in with a bit of singing
and after that we had a bash at Jerry Lee Lewis's "Whole lotta
shakin' goin' on" which went down ok I think.
We arranged to meet again this year to do the same again.
So, if you enjoy live music and
you can stand the pace of non-stop entertainment for 3 days
running, this is for you.
This video shows the
2014 Sunday afternoon finale concert.
You can get some idea of the level of entertainment on offer.
We are on the front row, directly behind the first pianist.
Take a look at the dancers at about 6:45 minutes into the video.
Give it a go. . . . .You'll have
a brilliant weekend.
I hope to see you there, so feel free the say "Hello" if you
turn up and spot me amongst the very small crowd.
See you there,
2015. LOTD Rolling lays and a very dry start to The Flat
The weather recently has been quite dry with the result that the
going has dried out a little earlier than normal this year.
The effect of that is that the Draw has come into effect in a
few flat races this last week.
Let's hope that the rain stays away.
At Beverley on Thursday, the 15:05
race was a 5F race for older horses.
The horses drawn in the 3 stalls next to the far rail finished
1st, 2nd, & 3rd.
Those used to be the Top 3 stalls, but after stalls re-numbering
a few years ago, they are now stalls 1, 2, & 3.
The winner was drawn in stall 2 of 17.
I would guess that we are all familiar with the draw advantage
in Beverley 5F races.
Today at Thirsk, there were 4
races for horses aged 3yrs or older with 8 or more runners over
the 5F & 6F course.
All 4 races were won by horses drawn in the top 6 stalls.
Winners were drawn 4 of 8, 12-12, 5-10 & 10-10.
The analysis on these web pages describe Thirsk draw advantages
in detail, using old results :-
Follow this link for
links to all UK course & distances.
At the start of the flat season 3
weeks ago, I started a "Lay Of The Day" using my "Rolling Lays"
spreadsheet, with the intention of laying a badly drawn horse
Follow this link to view a
video describing a "Rolling Lays spreadsheet.
I started with a lay liability of £10 with the intention of
"Rolling up" my profits (re-investing winnings) with the aim of
laying throughout the flat season without hitting a winner with
one of my lays.
If I can double my money a few times, I will have some nice
juicy lays for the risk of only my tenner.
I am waiting for good laying opportunities, so I don't have a
lay every day, but sometimes only once a week..
So far I have layed in 8 races and doubled my money for a
liability of just over £20 for my next lay, hopefully later this
You will probably work out from £10 profit from 8 lays, that I
am not laying favourites . . . Lol.
If I can double my money with another 8 lays I'll be laying for
a liability of £40 and upwards, and if I can double my cash
again, after that I'll be laying for a liability of £80 and
upwards. . . . and so on.
If I hit a winner at any point, I will have lost only my initial
£10, so I am hoping to have a bit of excitement for just £10.
Double my cash and my tenner will see my lay liability increase
. . . 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280 etc. . . if I am very
At my present rate, in theory that could be 7 times 8 successful
lays = 56 lays to hit £1280. . . . dream on.
I'm looking for badly drawn
horses, preferably ridden by an inexperienced rider.
I'm also trying to avoid big stables.
Although I had 4 sprint races to choose from today at Thirsk, I
only layed one runner, in the 18:15 race at Thirsk over 6F.
My lady rider (claiming 5 lbs) was drawn 1 of 10 runners. . . .
. . . Betfair Lay odds were 11.0 around dinner time.
Her horse had won only 1 of its 34 races so far, so it looked to
me that drawn in stall 1
she was up against
it a little..
On top of that, Mr. Fallon on the fav was drawn best of all in
stall 10 of 10 . . . Lol.
He won by 4 lengths.
My horse finished 9th of the 10 runners.
My jockey (claiming 3 lbs) at
Beverley on Wednesday was drawn in stall 12 of 17.
From what I could see, it was his first ride at Beverley, so
that looked ok to me for a lay as he was in the "wrong" half of
the draw and not drawn high enough to try running up the stands
rail looking for faster ground.
In the race he attempted to race towards the far side of the
After running prominently early in the race, his mount faded and
he finished 13th, . . . . nearer last than first.
I layed him at odds of 17.0 well before race time.
Apologies for the bit of after
If my stakes start to get excitingly large, I may post my
selections on a web page for a bit of added interest . . . for
me at least.
That may take a while laying my runners at double figure odds.
This is a long term game that I am playing, at least until I hit
a winner . . . Lol.
As always, good luck with your trades,
2015. What helps a horse to win ?
We all have our own way of looking at horse races and trying to
find the winner, or even something that may get placed.
Conversely, we may be looking for a reason why something may not
win so that we can place a lay.
There are lots of bits of information that we might combine
together such as the position in a betting forecast, course
winner, course and distance winner, previous form placings, etc.
. . . .
In my opinion, none of that type of information actually helps a
horse to win its race on the day.
If we look for something that may assist our runner, or
disadvantage our runners, in my opinion one item of information
stands head and shoulders above all the others in flat races on
turf - - - - - a good draw.
Draw advantage information has been
provided for many years, but historically, it has been extremely
By far the best example of extremely poor advice was draw
advantage advice offered for Epsom 5f races way back in the
1970's and 1980's, when all Epsom 5f races were started with the
starting stalls positioned away from the stands, mostly next to
the far (Low) running rail, but occasionally in the centre of
Stall number one was very often next to the running rail.
At that time, ALL our national newspapers advised a Low draw
advantage in Epsom 5f races..
The theory was that the horses nearest to the Low rail would
enjoy an advantage as they would run next to the running rail.
That "Low draw advantage" advice continued unchanged for at
least 10 years, but unfortunately for punters, it was completely
In the late 1970's and early
1980's, I collected draw advantage data and did a simple count
up of the number of wins from each staring stall in all races 5F
to 1 mile at all British race courses.
From my analysis of that data it soon became clear that Epsom 5F
one of the strongest draw advantages in the country, but the
advantage favoured High drawn horses, not those drawn in low
Drainage was the dominant factor, and still is today in Epsom 5F
On Epsom's straight course, there is a cross-course slope which
can be seen on television.
For most of the straight, the Stands side of the straight course
is quite a bit higher than the far side of the straight.
That slope may cause the high side (Stands side) to drain
quicker and dry out quicker than the far side, so we get faster
ground closer to the stands than towards the far running rail.
I pointed that out in the National Press in 1982, it went
completely un-noticed by our national press and other
publications at that time.
Now of course, it is common knowledge.
Follow this link to view the information that I used to come
to that "High draw advantage" conclusion.
The chart nearest to the bottom of that web page shows the old
data from 1976 to 1983 that I used.
That chart shows very clearly that in races for horses aged 3
yrs or older, just 3 horses were winning nearly all 5F races
They were the 3 horses drawn in the 3 highest numbered stalls,
drawn farthest away from the running rail towards the centre of
During those years, on good or better going, there were 16 races
for 3yr olds and older horses that had 8 or more runners.
Only 3 winners started from the bottom half of the draw.
12 of the other 13 winners started from the top 3 stalls.
To combat that glaring draw
advantage, Epsom race course now position the starting stalls
next to the High rail on the stands side - never against the low
They have been doing that since the mid 1980's.
I like to think that I have caused that with my draw advantage
analysis . . . .Lol.
So, if we were to bet or lay in
5F races at Epsom it would be worth taking that into
consideration would it not ?
If the draw is important in Epsom 5f races, it may also be
important in races at other venues.
I haven't updated my draw
advantage information for quite some time, but my guess is that
unless there have been drastic alterations such as those at
Ascot (a new straight course when the new stand was built),
Haydock (a new sprint course), and York (big drainage
alterations), many of the draw advantages of old will still
apply today at some courses.
The best draw advantages occur on
good or better going, so we normally need to wait until about
late May for draw advantages to play a reliable part in
races, but we appear to have had a reasonably dry spring this
The going at Doncaster was nearer Good than Good-soft this past
During the winter, Warwick
racecourse decided to offer only jumps races in future.
As there will not be any flat racing at Warwick we have lost a
very good draw advantage in
Warwick 6F races that was well worth following.
That advantage was due to a bend shortly after the start in
those 6f races, rather than drainage.
If you are not familiar with my
Draw Advantage charts,
a video explanation lives on this web page.
Links to charts for each course and distance are on
the All Courses tab of that web site.
Whether you are a bettor or a
layer, it may be worth considering the draw as part of your
selection process in turf races on the flat, particularly if the
going is good or dryer.
As always, good luck with your trades,
2015. Cheltenham winning trainers this year, 2015.
Here is a list of
winning trainers at
this year's Cheltenham March
meeting, with the number of wins - - - There were 27 races :-
WP Mullins 8
P Nichols 3
N Henderson 2 That is 15 of the 27 winners so far
from just 4 trainers.
All those below had a single win :-
Mis R curtiss
A J Martin
Ms M Mullins
amongst the single winner, there are one or 2 trainers who had a
winner the previous year.
I hope you had a profitable Cheltenham this year,
February 2015. Cheltenham trainers in 2014
With Cheltenham just over the horizon, I have been looking to
see how many low profile trainers managed a win at last year's
It seems to me that the big guys dominate things every year, so
rather than trying to hit a winner, I am hoping it will be
easier to hit a loser or 2.
It seems to me that high profile trainers dominate jumps
meetings when there is good prize money on offer.
We can see that on a Saturday on television.
My theory is that a horse that has not been running regularly at
courses such as Ascot, Cheltenham, Kempton, Newbury, Sandown,
and maybe Haydock, will be up against very stiff opposition if
chucked into a big race on a Saturday at those courses.
I avoid anything that has won over the course & distance at
those big courses.
thing that I look for is the number of runners that less well
known trainers send out each day.
Big stables will regularly run 3, 4, 5, or more horses on some
days, but smaller yards will have only 1 or 2, often at less
Betfair's results section is good for spotting that as we can
click on the trainer in there and it pulls up their past runners
in date order.
That's how I tackle finding something to lay on a Saturday,
usually just one for my LOTD in the big Saturday handicap.
Here is a list of
winning trainers at
last year's Cheltenham March
meeting, with the number of wins - - - There were 27 races :-
WP Mullins 4
D Pipe 3
JJ O'Neill 3
P Hobbs 2
J Culloty 2 That is 14 of the 27 winners
so far from just 5 trainers.
All those below had a single win :-
Mrs J Harrington
Miss R Curtiss
as I am not very
familiar with Irish trainers,
I cut out the Irish in general from my calculations.
I don't see many small UK trainers left in that list after that.
If you care to look back at the 2013 results, there was a very
Each Lay Of The Day for me will probably be at double figure
I see no point in laying something that is expected to win or go
If an inexperienced jockey is in the driving seat, so much the
Bon chance with your Cheltenham lays if you have a go at them,
December 2014. Lay a Double . . . . 4 possible outcomes.
It didn't take me long to realize that laying big odds in a
Yankee involved some huge lay liabilities if I hit 2 winners and the
next lay could involve a treble or 2, and maybe the 4 timer
which could make the potential lay liabilities look frightening..
I decided that a better idea would be to lay 4 runners in 6
doubles, rather than include the 3 trebles and 4 timer to
complete a Yankee.
Now if I hit 2 or more winners within my 4 runners, my payout
will only be on a double or doubles.
That looked a lot less dangerous,
but I then came to the conclusion that if I hit a winner with
the first of my 4 lays, I had 3 more lays to go before
completing my lays to complete the 6 doubles.
If my runners were Horses A, B, C, and D, the 6 doubles would be
AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, & CD.
Hit a winner with a lay of Horse A, and my next 3 lays of Horses
B, C, & D could all complete a double if one of those won.
That looks like one chance in 3 to me of coming unstuck, or even
3 chances in 3, possibly with some big odds.
To cut things down further, it
may be best just to lay one double at a time.
Now if I hit a winner, the risk is that my next runner also
Hit 2 consecutive winners and I have a loss.
If it loses,
I have profit, so start a 2nd double.
Hit a loser at any point and I have profit, and start a fresh
double with the next runner.
I put a spreadsheet together for
that using level stakes so that I can keep track of what happens
including commission deductions when I lay my doubles.
Some very helpful e-mail correspondence put me onto what I am
looking at now.
Thank you very much "D.C" for your feedback and suggestions. . .
. . That was just great.
My theory now is to select a 2 runner market that has plenty of
money matched, and lay the outsider of the 2 selections at just
above odds of 2.0, (Just above evens).
In theory, there should be just less than a 50 - 50 chance of
laying a winner, so the chance of hitting a double should be
something better than odds of 2.0, plus a little further than
If we Bet £1 on 2 runners both at
odds of 2.0, the potential payout is 3 stakes.
The calculation for that is :- (£1 x 2.0 x 2.0)
minus our £1 original stake = £3
If we are Laying, the lay payout on the first runner if it wins
That loss plus our original lay stake is carried onto the 2nd
runner in our double, so if that also wins, we lose another £2,
but our lay stake is returned.
The total loss from laying a double at odds of 2.0 & 2.0 =
Lay a double, and there are 4
possible outcomes :-
Win / Win, Win / Lose, Lose / Win,
Lose / Lose..
It looks to me as if our chance of winning with our £1 is
therefore 3 against 1, before commission deductions on any
Looking at that, it appears to me
that even if we lay close to even money odds of 2.0, the odds
are in our favour, somewhere between 2/1 and 3/1 including
I hope that Murphy's Law doesn't have too much influence on my
logic . . . . . . . . Lol.
We will see what happens in the next week or so, as I look to
lay some doubles, one at a time, with odds close to 2.0.
If that works out anything close
to ok, we may be able to use bigger odds with bigger lay
liabilities, but with lay payout less often.
double at odds bigger than 2.0 and the lay payout increases, so
are our 3/1 odds reduced or increased ???
Lay a £1 double at odds of 3.0 & 3.0 and the potential payout is
We need to hit more losers to cover a payout, and we certainly
have more commission to pay on bigger successful lays if we have
hit a winner, and then hit a loser with the 2nd lay of our
double, for a Win / Lose outcome.
This is starting to give me a headache,
December 2014. Lay a Yankee.
If you read through my earlier posts, you may come to the
conclusion that the basis of my trades revolves around the risk
free trading of bookie refunds that are available to existing
I've done very well out of those for a number of years.
Over the last 2 or 3 years, my bookie accounts with the big
bookies have gradually dwindled as I have either had my refunds
and bonuses stopped, stake sizes limited, or accounts closed.
On top of that, bookies these days are nowhere near as generous
with their refund offers as the used to be.
The result is that my monthly profits have gradually declined,
so over the past several months I have been looking for an
alternative way of getting into profit every month.
Over the past few weeks, I have been
looking at trading odds movements in horse races as per the Bet
Trader software videos, but predicting which way the odds will
move is anybody's guess, so I have been racking my brains for an
Me and my trading buddy have tried several tipster services over
the past few months, but I find that they don't suit my style as
I feel tied to my computer every day, waiting for the tips to
turn up via e-mail, and anyway, where's the fun in betting on
someone else's selections ?
Whilst I have been doing that, I
have kept returning to looking at laying multiples, in
particular, Yankee bets in Betfair or Betdaq.
I have a spreadsheet for that of course,
follow this link.
The strategy for laying a Yankee
in an exchange using a spreadsheet is to lay each runner one at
a time so that we know the result of one event before we lay the
As our Yankee progresses, the spreadsheet works out the stake
required for our next lay, depending on what winners or losers
we have hit with the previous lays in our Yankee.
That is all straightforward enough, but the big question is,
"What can we do to try to avoid laying 2 or more winners within
our Yankee's 4 runners and have a BIG payout ?"
A selection process would be
nice, but in my experience, picking losers is no easier that
I even layed a
horse at odds of 100.0 a while back.
Not everyone can claim to have managed that !!!
With that in mind, I have been
looking for a mathematical solution rather than a "Normal"
Perhaps we may be less likely to lay a double if we target
runners in a price range that may not hit 2 winners or more in
any 4 selections.
That is what I am working with at present.
This is the "Theory" of the
logic that I am currently paper trading :-
It is well documented that if enough money is in a market, the
odds will reflect the chances of the runners involved.
So, with plenty of liquidity, we can expect and even money
chance, ( Betfair odds 2.0 ), to win 50% of the time, or once in
every 2 races.
If that is true, we can expect a 3/1 chance
( odds of 4.0 )
to win once in every 4 races, 25% of the time.
Our Yankee is a bet of 4 runners.
The minimum payout is on a double - - - 2 runners, so, if we lay
4 runners with odds of 3/1 (4.0), in the long term we can expect
to hit one winner every time with our 4 runner Yankees.
If we can do that, every one of our Lay Yankees will be
successful as we will only hit a single runner each time, not 2
Unfortunately, our winners and losers will come in bunches of
course, so if we lay all our runners at odds of 4.0, we may lay
several Yankees and hit zero winners, but at other times we may
hit 2 or more winners within the 4 runners of a Yankee and have
To get around that, we may lay
That should reduce the chance of hitting 2 or more winners
within a Yankee of 4 selections.
That is the logic that I am working with.
To reduce my chances of hitting 2 winners in 4 selections, we
may double the odds that we lay, and lay odds of maybe 8.0.
To add a bit more certainty, (a bad choice of word that, .
. . Lol. ), we could increase our lay odds to 10.0, and our
chances of hitting one winner, in theory become 0ne in every 10
Hitting 2 winners should occur once in every 20 selections. . .
. In theory. . . . I hope.
With a bit of luck, those may be more than 4 runners apart,
which would give me a lot of successfully layed Yankees.
So my current rules are very
Select races at random and lay one horse in each of 4 races.
The selection to lay in each race is the first horse in the
betting with odds in double figures, 10.0 or bigger.
Lay at a minimum odds of 10.0 and
I would guess that our chances of hitting 2 winners in 4 runners
would be quite slim.
It will happen if we lay enough Yankees, but laying 2 winners in
4 runners for a payout should be vastly reduced if we lay bigger
The problem with that of course is that a payout on hitting 2
winners at odds of 10.0 will be a lot bigger than a payout on 2
winners at odds of say, 4.0, but it should occur far less often.
We could of course get off to a very bad start and hit a payout
or 2 early in our trades.
To minimise the chances of a
payout even further, I am keeping records of the number of
runners in my races, and anything else that springs to mind,
such as avoiding big trainer - jockey combinations, and laying
only horses from the smaller yards.
A smaller yard could be a gambling yard of course - - - -
- so laying big prices still carries plenty of doubt and
apprehension. . . .Lol.
All of these things will already be built into the odds, if the
"Liquidity theory" is correct.
I may end up laying only in races
with plenty of runners, and stakes races rather than handicaps,
etc., etc, . . . you know how it goes.
So, that's what I am up to at present, but only on paper.
I realize that winners can come from anywhere, and that a horse
doesn't know what price it is when it sets off, so anything can
I'll keep you posted on progress of my "On Paper Yankees".
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.
November 2014. Odds to avoid. . . . . 3, 4, 6, 10, .
. . or to look for ?
If you decide to bet and lay some odds, maybe in horse racing
markets hoping to hedge to a profit, if the odds move in an
unfavourable direction, it may be worth considering what happens
if we bet at odds of 3.0, 4.0, 6.0 or 10.0,. or possible
just below those odds.
Those are the points at which Betfair increments change in size.
The implications of that are that if the odds move against us so
that we need to lay at higher odds to exit our trade, a one-tick
loss may be more than twice the size of a one-tick profit if the
odds had dropped and we were able to lay at odds lower than our
If we bet at odds of 3.0, the
next odds increment down is 2.98, a difference of 0.02.
If we bet at
odds of 3.0, the next odds increment up is 3.05, a difference of
So, if we bet £100 and lay at 2.98 to equalize our trade for an
equal profit, we would show a profit of plus £0.67.
If things go against us and we lay at 3.05, we show a loss of
a difference of almost £1.
Take 5% commission off the £0.67 profit, and we are left with a
£0.64 one-tick profit against a one-tick loss of
Bet at odds of 4.0 and the next
increments are down 3.95, and up 4.1, a difference of 0.05 or
Bet £100 at odds of 4.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :-
Minus £2.44 or plus £1.27, or
£1.21 after commission.
Bet at odds of
6.0 and the next increments are down 5.9, and up 6.2, a
difference of 0.1 or 0.20.
Bet £100 at odds of 6.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :-
Minus £3.23 or plus £1.69, or
£1.61 after commission.
Bet at odds of
10.0 and the next increments are down 9.8, and up 10.5, a
difference of 0.2 or 0.50.
Bet £100 at odds of 10.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :-
Minus £4.76 or plus £2.04, or
£1.94 after commission.
Trade around these odds, and
making a profit becomes harder than if we were trading odds that
didn't have an odds increment change between our bet and lay
The way to get around these potential difficulties is to avoid
trading odds that are close to 3.0, 4.0, 6.0 or 10.0 if you are
placing a Bet First trade . . . . looking for a decrease in the
If you are considering betting and laying some odds with the
intention of betting high and laying low to "Green Up", you
might consider placing your initial bet some way away from odds
of 3, 4, 6, or 10.
However, if you anticipate that
your odds will be getting bigger so you are laying first in
anticipation of the odds increasing, it may be to your advantage
to lay at these odds, or even one tick bigger.
If we do that, things work in our favour :-
Lay £100 at
odds of 3.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :- plus £1.64,
or £1.59 after commission, or
£100 at odds of 4.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :- plus
£2.44, or £2.32 after commission, or
£100 at odds of 6.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :- plus
£3.23, or £3.07 after commission, or
£100 at odds of 10.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :-
plus £4.76, or £4.52 after commission, or
As always, good luck with the
trades, and don't forget 3, 4, 6, & 10, if you are betting and
laying odds . . . Howard.
November 2014. Horse racing odds movements.
In the next week or so, I may be linking from here to some
software that may help with predicting odds movements in horse
There may also be links to demonstration videos.
I'll be having a go with the
The initial cost of that will be just
99 pence for the first month.
After that, the cost of using the software will be substantially
more, so watch for the link from here sometime after Monday
Good luck with the trades, Howard.
|8th September 2014.
Analyse web page
up and running.
After some video software problems, I've eventually put a new
"Analyse Data" tab on
my Strategies web site.
Another problem that I had is that the Analyse spreadsheet file
will not load into Open Office software. . . . It will
only work in Excel.
A smaller version of the file worked ok in Open Office, but once
I expanded it to accommodate more columns of data, Open Office
refused to co-operate.
I've put a warning about that and the size of the Excel file on
my web page.
So, if you are interested in improving your selection process
for your bets in any sport, you might take a look at the videos
for this new file.
week, I started collecting some Premiership football data,
including Betfair odds.
I'm looking to add another video to the 2 that are on the
Analyse Data tab of
my Strategies web site to demonstrate
how the sheet could be used to analyse football data.
I will need maybe 3 or 4 weeks of results to get started with
that, but even then that will only be 30 or 40 games. . . .
A very small sample.
30 or 40 games will have to do for a footy demonstration,
otherwise we'll be heading towards December before I put a
football video together.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.
2014. Analyse your results.
I've had a break from putting spreadsheets together and
enjoyed things on my domestic scene for the past month or 3, but
now I'm ready to put one or 2 new ideas forward on my web sites.
My main offering will be a spreadsheet file that will enable
data or results to be analysed.
If you have a series of results available that maybe show a
profit, this spreadsheet package will enable you to analyse
those results further and see exactly what is working for you
and what isn't.
For example, you may have some horse racing results with detail
such as Odds,
Type of race, Age group, Course,
You may even have a list of results from a tipping service that
may only quote the odds of past winners and losers.
Whatever the information that you have available, it can be
analysed to get the best out of it.
This spreadsheet package has a data
input tab that allows input of odds, plus another 3 columns for
analysis of anything that involves numbers, and 2 columns for
anything that involves text.
Input your odds, result for a winner or a loser, plus up to 5
other bits of info for anything else that involves numbers or
Then go to an "Analysis" spreadsheet in the same file to see
graphs of each of those different items of information showing
the profit or loss over the time period of your input.
Now for the interesting bit.
Inputs on this Analysis spreadsheet allow you to set limits for
each item of information, and see what the profit or loss would
be within those limits.
For example, you might set upper and lower limits for your Odds
so that you can see which odds pay best, short odds, big odds,
or something in between.
An example for information involving a text input might be the
type of race :- You might look at whether stakes races pay
better than handicaps, or if sellers, amateurs races, apprentice
races, or All Weather races etc. affect your profit & loss.
The choice is yours.
For each of your bits of individual information, the Analysis
spreadsheet shows the total number of races and the number of
winners and losers as you alter your number limits, or text
The Total races and number of winners are used to show your
Winning Strike Rate within the limits that you set, or the text
item that you select.
Profit or loss to a £1 level stake is shown, and a graph shows
the progress of that profit or loss over the period of your data
I will be adding LLR (Longest Losing Run), and LWR (Longest
Winning Run) to those displays.
Once you have done the "Fine
Tuning" for each individual bit of information, to get the best
out each of them, they are all combined on a single graph, with
a list of the limits that you have set. - - - giving you a
written list of your "Filters".
You now have your personal "Betting Method", with your filter
Once again, you can see Total Races, winning strike rate, P & L,
and the progress of your profit and loss shown on a graph, this
time for all your filters combined.
Alter any filter, and your list of filters will reflect that and
the P & L graph will update.
Your analysis need not be limited
to horses of course.
You can input information related to anything you like,
football, dogs, tennis, cricket, the weather . . . .anything.
If you are betting on something at present, why not keep track
of the results and tweak your betting as you go along ?
At present, I only have a betting
Analysis spreadsheet package, but I will be converting that so
that we can also analyse lays.
So, if you are interested in analysing your stuff, or anything
other data that you come across, such as the results of some
tips on a web page somewhere, you might like to analyse those
bits of information and improve things a little.
Once your data is in the spreadsheet, you can manipulate it as
much as you like, very quickly, easily, and very accurately.
The results of your analysis will be instant, with a graphical
display of profit and loss that updates immediately.
I'll be adding a new web page to
one or more of my web sites to accommodate this Analysis
A video or 2 will describe the spreadsheets and demonstrate what
you might get out of the data you input.
That will take a while.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.
2014. Arsenal beat Hull 0 - 3.
Apologies for putting a tip up rather than discussing staking in
the previous post below.
Very pleasing results all round with Everton also beating Man U.
I think we can expect a different Hull side to be competing for
the F.A. Cup in May.
2014. Lay of the day tomorrow . . . . Hull.
I'm not a very good tipster, but . . . . .
If Arsenal qualify for the
Champions league, Hull get to play in Europe next season
whether they win or lose the FA Cup in May.
If Arsenal don't qualify for
Europe, Hull will only get to play in Europe if they beat
Arsenal in the FA Cup Final.
With that in mind :-
Those 2 teams meet tomorrow, Sunday, in the Premiership.
Arsenal are currently 4th in the
Premiership, 1 point in front of Everton, so a win for
Arsenal against Hull would keep them one point in front of
Everton at the very least.
A draw could see Everton
overtake Arsenal if Everton beat Man Utd.
Man Utd have nothing to play for
With both Everton and Spurs
ahead of them for the Premiership 5th place Europa spot, Man
U are not in close contention for Europe or anything else.
The 2 games kick off at :- 14:05
Hull - Arsenal, and 16:10 for Everton - Man U.
From a business point of view,
it is not in Hull's interest to win tomorrow's game against
If Hull take the lead, a Draw
result after that would not look as bad as a Hull loss after
being in a winning situation.
Questions might be asked by
So, in my opinion, the thing to
do is lay Hull.
It makes no sense for Hull to
win this game, and not much sense for Hull to Draw either,
so logically, Hull must be a lay.
Arsenal will be looking to put
one over on Hull in readiness for the FA Cup Final.
Also, Arsenal one point clear of
Everton in 4th spot, need to keep winning to make sure that
they qualify for The Champion's League..
Arsenal have an easier run for
their last few games than Everton.
Even so, every point counts, so
Arsenal will be up for a Win.
Hull should be up for a Lose.
That's my assessment for what
Arsenal play Hull before Everton
meet Man U, so Hull must play this game and make sure that
they do not win.
That will almost certainly get
Hull into Europe regardless of what happens in the FA Cup
currently on 36 points - - 6 & 7 points clear of the bottom
3 Premiership teams.
Hull have games in hand on those 3 teams, but still have to
play Fulham, Villa, Man U, and Everton.
I'll be laying Hull.
Current odds are Bet 4.7, Lay 4.8,
Good luck if you have a go at that, but please bear in mind
that anything can happen in a football match. . . . Lol,
2014. How to trade bookie accumulator refunds to
my Bookie Refunds web page.
today to include this new spreadsheet.
I put a video together last week to describe the staking for
several different kinds of bookie accumulator refund.
This spreadsheet package now has 5 videos that describe a couple
of spreadsheets and some accumulator refund trades that I did a
Good luck with your accumulators if you have a go at them,
2014. Lay an accumulator spreadsheet.
Bookies seem to be offering more refunds and bonus payments that
involve betting a double, treble, or a 4 or 5 timer.
For the past few months, since September 2013, I have been
trading these successfully to guaranteed winnings with zero or
very little risk to my cash.
I put some videos together several months ago to describe the
spreadsheet that I am using and to show live trades and the
I am now almost ready to put this spreadsheet package up on
my Bookie Refunds web page.
I need to put another video or 2 together and then I can go
ahead with that.
with the bookie offers that we are used to seeing, these
accumulator offers come in several different forms :-
- Bet an accumulator and get a
- Bet an accumulator and get a
free accumulator bet.
- Bet an winning accumulator
and the bookie will add a percentage to our winnings.
I wouldn't attempt to profit from a low percentage bonus
such as 10% or 20% when trading acumulators.
- Bet an accumulator and get a
refund if our accumulator is a loser.
This last one may be described by your bookie as a "No Lose"
Refunds may be a cash refund of
our bet stake, or more often these days, our stake may be
refunded as a free bet.
Whatever the offer, these bookie accumulator offers are well
worth looking at.
Mostly, they can be traded to profit with zero or very little
Surprisingly, one of the best sources of these refunds over the
last 6 or 7 months has been Betfair's Fixed Odds web site that
is bolted onto the exchange.
Even Betdaq got into the swing of things during Cheltenham week
with a 100% winnings added offer on each of the 4 days if we bet
a £10 double using their Multiples section.
If you missed that at the time, it was an offer to double our
winnings up to £1000 if we hit a winning £10 double in the
An offer like that with a £1000
bonus within the text may conjure up visions of amazing
possibilities, but the end result of trading these accumulator
refunds is exactly the same as if we were trading similar offers
for a single selection :-
The profit from trading the qualifying bet, plus a 2nd trade of
the free bet produces a profit that is a percentage of our
original bet stake.
For example, if we bet £10 with a bookie to qualify for a £10
free bet, we expect to make a small loss when betting and laying
the £10 qualifying bet.
We then bet and lay the free bet, knowing that we can make
guaranteed profit of 70% of our free £10, or more if we trade a
horse, maybe less for football.
That £7 recovers the small loss from trading the qualifying bet
and gives us profit on top.
We may make more than £5 or £6 from the 2 trades combined, with
zero risk to our cash.
These accumulator refund and bonus offers work on exactly the
same principle :-
- Bet and lay the qualifier.
- Bet and lay the free bet.
- The overall profit will be a
percentage of our original bet stake.
The profit will generally be slightly smaller than we might
expect from a normal free bet offer, but can be very similar
if we are able to lay suitable odds.
There are 2 strategies.
Mostly, we can select runners or football teams for our double,
treble, or 4 or 5 timer, with time between each event.
We then lay those in turn as they take place.
If we hit a winner with our first lay, we need to lay the 2nd
runner or team to recover those lost liabilities.
Hit the winner with our 2nd lay and we need to recover the lost
liabilities from both races 1 and 2, and so on.
Hit a loser at any point and that is end of trade.
We have a successful lay that recovered lost liabilities, but a
losing bet with our bookie.
Get the staking right whilst we are doing that and we can trade
to profit every time over the 2 trades, qualifying bet plus free
bet combined, providing that our lay odds don't increase whilst
we are waiting for races or games to complete.
We can lay so that our
liabilities are less than our bet winnings if we hit all
Whilst we are doing that, we can lay to recover all lay losses
so far, plus a profit on top.
Remember that that we will be trading a free bet, so the bet
loss will be zero.
Hit a loser, and we have profit.
Hit all winners and we have profit.
Stake our lays to suit the terms of the refund and we can profit
from each type of offer described above.
That is the basics of method One
- - - - choose runners for our accumulator with time between
each event so that we can lay them one at a time.
Method 2 introduces an element of risk, but I have traded method
2 without a free bet whilst testing my spreadsheet.
I had my ups and downs whilst doing that, and came out slightly
in front after a few trades.
I made mistakes that caused me red trades, so a learning curve
was involved in a couple of those trades.
This is method 2 :-
Occasionally, the bookie offer will force us to trade football
games that all kick off at or around the same time, such as
Champions League or Premiership games.
An offer might be " Bet 5 x £10 on Premiership games this
weekend, get a free 5 fold accumulator for next weekend's
Betfair were particularly fond of that type of offer for a
Other similar offers from Betfair involved Champions League
If the free 5 timer involves games that do not have 5 games that
kick off with time between those games, we need to bet 5 teams
that all kick off at the same time and then look to lay them at
lower odds "In Play" as goals are scored.
If our teams don't score and get into a winning position, we
cannot trade out so we may have to take the hit of the cost of
the qualifying bets.
To trade the 4 or 5 games of our free accumulator "In Play" all
at the same time, we need to use the balanced staking of
I have a "Dutching" spreadsheet for that, but this is not really
Dutching as a loss in one game is not deducted before commission
is taken off profit in another of our games.
If we were Dutching a single market such as Correct Score in a
single game, losses would be deducted from profit before we pay
As we will be laying a team 4 or 5 different games, we will pay
commission on each of those games.
The sheet is simple enough, and uses the balanced staking of
Dutching to get the correct staking so that our profit or loss
is very similar for each of our lays.
The good news if we are forced to
use this Dutching method is that if we are lucky, this kind of
trade can pay extremely well.
If all of our teams have all been in a winning position, - - - a
goal or 2 in front, but then the other team score to get the
score to a Draw or have our team losing by a goal, we can
have a good profit from what becomes a successful lay of our
now, losing team.
If 2 of our teams get into a losing position after we have layed
them, that is even better news - - - Congratulations, it's our
birthday . . Lol.
Ideally, we would be laying our
teams when they are in a winning position with their lay odds
somewhere below odds of 1.2.
Lay £34.48 at odds of 1.16 and we have liabilities of
If that team then gets into a Draw or losing position, we have a
successful lay of plus £34.48, less 5% commission = plus £32.76.
Be lucky enough to put 2 of those together and profits really
start to take off.
Trades like that are unlikely to come along very often, but
anything can happen in a football match.
I've come extremely close to hitting one of those whilst doing
just a few trades.
I missed it by a few seconds.
A goal was scored whilst I was placing my lay - - - - It was as
close as that.
Once I put another video or 2
together, this "Trade a Bookie Accumulator Refund or Bonus"
package will be available on my web site.
If you would like the spreadsheets now, just e-mail me and we
can arrange your £10 PayPal payment and I'll send the
spreadsheet file by e-mail with links to a couple of videos to
get you started.
I have come to look forward to
these accumulator refunds.
They are a little bit different from other refunds, maybe a bit
more of a challenge, mainly due to the possibility of our lay
odds getting bigger, but easy enough to do once you get used to
They also add to the profit total at the end of the month.
As always, good luck with your trades, especially your
accumulators if you have a go at them, Howard.
2014. Zero %, 3% and 5% commission rates.
Ladbrokes recently opened a betting exchange to compete with
Betfair, Betdaq, etc.
Laddies have an offer at present of zero commission for a
month if we open an exchange account during March, plus a
boatload of free bets if we continue to bet and lay with them.
As you know, liquidity can be a problem if we are not using
Betfair, but with Betfair's commission rate at 5% and the other
some way below that, it can pay better to take worse odds, but
at a more favourable commission rate.
I've put a simple spreadsheet
together to demonstrate that.
Use this link to
download the free spreadsheet.
If the file opens as "Read only" or cells B1, D2 and G2 appear
to be locked, just re-name the file and it should then work ok
The spreadsheet allows us to input any stake size and 2
It then shows the profit from a bet or a lay using that stake
size for the bet or the lay over a range of odds from 1.94 up to
Profits after commission deductions are shown for the 2
commission rates that we input, plus zero commission.
We can now see which of our 3
exchanges pays best.
It may pay better if we take less favourable odds, but at a
lower commission rate.
The screenshot below shows the lower end of the odds in the
I have entered a bet or lay stake of £10 at cell B1.
If we look at the profit at odds of 2.0, we can see that a £10
bet or lay will return a profit of £9.50 in columns F & G after
5% commission deductions.
At 3% commission in columns D & E, we can afford to bet 2 ticks
lower at 1.98 and still show a bigger profit at cell D9 of £9.51.
With zero commission, we can bet 5 ticks lower for an identical
£9.50 profit at odds of 1.95 at cell B6.
If you are placing a single bet
or lay, or betting with a bookie and laying in an exchange, it
may be worth considering an alternative to Betfair.
These other exchanges are offering very attractive commission
Close odds of Bet 2.0 and Lay 2.02, may not pay better than
slightly worse looking odds elsewhere.
Taking advantage of the most competitive commission rates can
add an unexpected little bit extra to profits.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.
2014. Trading Betdaq odds.
I seem to be using Betdaq more and more these days.
Gaps in the Betdaq odds is still a problem, but with a bit of
thought, we can squeeze the best out of the Betdaq odds.
Tonight, I had a free Betfair bet on NBA Basketball.
I was looking for some big odds to trade, so looked at the
biggest available in tonight's games.
The free bet "Bet odds" that I was looking to trade were 7.0
(lay odds were 7.4), but the Betdaq odds looked really bad with
bet odds at 6.0, and lay at 8.6.
At first glance, that looks like a complete disaster, but I
decided to bet at the 7.0 on offer in Betfair and then offered
to lay at 7.8 in Betdaq, which was some way below the
Betdaq lay odds of 8.6, but some way above the current bet odds
in Betfair of 7.4.
of 7.0 was matched immediately and my lay in Betdaq at 7.8 was
matched very quickly, probably after about 10 or 15 seconds.
Bet at 7.0 and lay at 7.8 may still look pretty bad, but as you
can see from the screenshot of my spreadsheet below, I still
came out with a profit of £7.12 whatever the result from my £10
free bet trade.
70% profit from a free bet trade is certainly ok with me.
In the screenshot below, we can see that if I hit a winner with
my free £10 bet, I have winnings of £57 after 5% commission at
column G, and lay liabilities of minus £49.88 at cell E15 for a
profit of £7.12.
If I hit a loser, I have a successful lay of £7.34 at cell B15,
which gives a profit of £7.12 after deducting 3% commission.
My bet loss is zero as my bet was free.
After making this trade, I deducted the cost of my qualifying
bets, which left me with an overall profit on the total trades
This Exchange to Exchange
spreadsheet is available on my Bookie Refunds web page.
The file contains spreadsheets for trading Exchange to Exchange
qualifying bets and also free bets.
Commission on both sides of the trade is built into the
Commission rates can be reversed in the sheets so that they can
be used for betting and laying Betfair to Betdaq or the other
The point I am making here is
that even though the Betdaq odds may look unacceptable, if we
look at what is on offer in Betfair and offer something a tick
or 2 better in Betdaq, we can quite often get matched in Betdaq
without any problems.
Bot traders will be looking for the slightest of edges between
Betfair and Betdaq odds and will soon latch on to the nice
attractive odds that we offer.
Other traders will also be looking for the better odds that we
offer in Betdaq, rather than just relying on what is available
Providing that the odds that we offer give us a good trade, we
can go ahead and offer what look like very attractive odds
compared to what is available in Betfair.
I find that sports such as basketball may have gaps in the
Betfair market and quite often may not have odds available in
Betdaq that are close to what we see in Betfair.
We can often get around that problem by offering odds a tick or
2 better in one exchange than in the other.
With commission at 3%, Betdaq is always worth looking at.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.
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